플로리다에서 2020 미국 대통령 선거 - 2020 United States presidential election in Florida

플로리다에서 2020 미국 대통령 선거

2016 년 2020 년 11 월 3 일 2024 년 →
투표율 77.17 % [1] Increase2.69
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden 2013.jpg
후보자 도날드 트럼프 조 바이든
파티 공화주의자 민주주의
집 상태 플로리다 델라웨어
러닝 메이트 마이크 펜스 카말라 해리스
예상 선거인 투표 29 0
인기 투표 5,668,731 5,297,045
백분율 51.22 % 47.86 %

Florida Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
카운티 결과

선거 전 대통령

도널드 트럼프
공화당

선출 된 대통령

조 바이든
민주당

2020 년 미국 플로리다 대선2020 년 11 월 3 일 화요일에 50 개 주와 컬럼비아 특별구가 모두 참여한 2020 년 미국 선거 의 일환으로 열렸습니다 . [2] 플로리다 유권자들은 대중 투표를 통해 선거인단 에서 선거인단을 대표 할 선거인을 선택하고 , 공화당 후보자, 현직 도널드 트럼프 대통령 , 그리고 조 바이든 전 부통령 인 민주당 후보자 인 마이크 펜스 부통령을 반대 하며, 그리고 그의 러닝 메이트 캘리포니아 상원 의원 카말라 해리스 . 플로리다는 선거인단에서 29 표를 얻었습니다. [삼]

1972 년 민주당 전당 대회 를 주최 한 플로리다 주 마이애미 비치는 2020 년 민주당 전당 대회 를 주최 한 결선 진출 자였습니다 . [4] 다른 결선 진출자는 밀워키와 휴스턴이었습니다. Milwaukee는 궁극적으로 호스트로 선정되었습니다. [5] [6] 플로리다는 2016 년 뉴욕 을 고향으로 지정한 후 이번 선거에서 트럼프의 거주지였습니다 . [7] 그 결과 트럼프는 플로리다 거주자가 된 두 주요 정당의 첫 번째 후보자가되었습니다. Biden은 2020 년 3 월 17 일 2020 플로리다 민주당 대통령 예비 선거 에서 민주당 후보로 선정되었습니다 .

선거 이전에는 전체 여론 조사에서 Joe Biden 이 플로리다에서 선두를 차지했습니다. 그럼에도 불구하고 트럼프는 3.36 %의 마진으로 주를 이겼고, 2016 년 부터 힐러리 클린턴에 비해 1.2 %의 마진이 향상되었습니다 . 2004 년 이후 플로리다의 모든 대통령 선거에서 가장 큰 마진이었다 . 이것은 트럼프가 이번 재선 입찰에서 선샤인 주를 대표했기 때문이며 , 특히 마이애미-데이 드 카운티 에서 라틴계 유권자 들 사이의지지가 증가했기 때문입니다 . 특히 Biden은 클린턴의 29.4보다 훨씬 낮은 7.3 % 마진을 기록했습니다. 2016 년 마진 %. [8] 트럼프는 58 % 쿠바 계 라틴계를 보유한 반면 Biden은66 %의 푸에르토 리코 인과 50 %의 남미 . [9] [10] 이번 선거에서 플로리다는 전체적으로 7.3 점의 권리를 득표했는데, 이는 플로리다가 국가의 7.5 점을 득표 한 1992 년 이후 가장 먼 국가에서 투표 한 것 입니다.

이번 선거는 1992 년 이후 처음이었고 1960 년 이후 두 번째로 플로리다가 대통령 선거에서 패배 한 후보에게 갔다. 1960 년 이후 처음으로 오하이오 와 플로리다가 대선에서 패배 후보를 뽑은 것은 1992 년 이후 처음으로 플로리다가 공화당 원으로, 이웃 조지아 가 민주당 원으로 뽑혔습니다. 또한 이것은 2008 년 John McCain이 애리조나에서 우승 한 이후 공화당 후보가 고향에서 우승 한 첫 번째 선거였습니다 .

주 전체의 손실에도 불구하고 Biden은 1976 년 이후 Duval County 에서 우승 한 최초의 민주당 원이되었고 1948 년 이후 Seminole County 에서 우승 한 최초의 민주당 원이되었습니다 . [11] [12] Biden은 Pinellas 카운티를 다시 민주당으로 되돌 렸습니다 .

예비 선거

예비 선거는 2020 년 3 월 17 일에 치러졌습니다.

공화당 예비 선거

플로리다 국무 장관은 Rocky De La Fuente 를 주요 후보로 선포 했으며 따라서 자동으로 투표 용지에 포함될 가치가 있습니다.

2020 플로리다 공화당 대통령 예비 선거 [13] [14]
후보자 투표 % 예상
대표자
도날드 트럼프 1,162,984 93.79 122
빌 용접 39,319 3.17
Joe Walsh (철회) 25,464 2.05
Rocky De La Fuente 12,172 0.98
합계 1,239,939 100 % 122

민주당 예비 선거

: 세 민주당은 플로리다의 예비 선거 개최 시간 레이스에서 여전히 있었다 버몬트 상원 의원 버니 샌더스 , 전 부통령 조 바이든 , 그리고 대리점 에서 하와이 툴시 가바 . [15] [16] [17]

첫 번째 민주당 토론은 2019 년 6 월 말 이틀에 걸쳐 마이애미 에서 열렸습니다.이 토론은 여러 NBC 네트워크 에서 방송되었습니다 . [18]

2020 플로리다 민주당 대통령 예비 선거 [19]
후보자 투표 % 대의원 [20]
조 바이든 1,077,375 61.95 162
버니 샌더스 397,311 22.84 57
마이클 블룸버그 (철회) 146,544 8.43 0
Pete Buttigieg (철회) 39,886 2.29 0
엘리자베스 워렌 (철회) 32,875 1.89 0
Amy Klobuchar (철회) 17,276 0.99 0
툴시 개 버드 8,712 0.50 0
앤드류 양 (철회) 5,286 0.30 0
마이클 베넷 (철회) 4,244 0.24 0
Tom Steyer (철회) 2,510 0.14 0
마리안 윌리엄슨 (철회) 1,744 0.10 0
John Delaney (철회) 1,583 0.09 0
Cory Booker (철회) 1,507 0.09 0
Julián Castro (철회) 1,036 0.06 0
Joe Sestak (철회) 664 0.04 0
Deval Patrick (철회) 661 0.04 0
합계 1,739,214 100 % 219

총선거

예측

출처 순위 현재
쿡 정치 보고서 [21] 토스 업 2020 년 11 월 3 일
내부 선거 [22] 기울기 D (뒤집기) 2020 년 11 월 3 일
Sabato의 수정 구슬 [23] 린 R 2020 년 11 월 3 일
폴리 티코 [24] 토스 업 2020 년 11 월 3 일
RCP [25] 토스 업 2020 년 11 월 3 일
니스 카넨 [26] 가능성 D (뒤집기) 2020 년 11 월 3 일
CNN [27] 토스 업 2020 년 11 월 3 일
이코노미스트 [28] Lean D (플립) 2020 년 11 월 3 일
CBS 뉴스 [29] 토스 업 2020 년 11 월 3 일
270towin [30] 토스 업 2020 년 11 월 3 일
ABC 뉴스 [31] 토스 업 2020 년 11 월 3 일
NPR [32] 토스 업 2020 년 11 월 3 일
NBC 뉴스 [33] 토스 업 2020 년 11 월 3 일
538 [34] Lean D (플립) 2020 년 11 월 3 일

투표

그래픽 요약

집계 투표


집계 소스

관리되는 날짜

업데이트 된 날짜

바이든
민주당
도널드
트럼프
공화당
기타 /
미정 [a]
여유
270 승리 2020 년 10 월 24 일 – 11 월 1 일 2020 년 11 월 3 일 48.7 % 46.0 % 5.3 % 바이든 +2.7
진짜 명확한 정치 2020 년 10 월 28 일 – 11 월 2 일 2020 년 11 월 3 일 47.9 % 47.0 % 5.1 % 바이든 +0.9
FiveThirtyEight 2020 년 11 월 2 일까지 2020 년 11 월 3 일 49.1 % 46.6 % 4.3 % 바이든 +2.5
평균 48.6 % 46.5 % 4.9 % 바이든 +2.1

주 투표

설문 조사 출처
관리 날짜
샘플
크기 [b]
오차 한계
도널드
트럼프
공화당

바이든
민주당
Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian
호위
호킨스
그린
다른 미정
Insider Advantage / Fox 35 2020 년 11 월 1 ~ 2 일 [c] 400 (LV) ± 4.4 % 48 % 47 % 2 % - 삼%
트라팔가 그룹 2020 년 10 월 31 일 – 11 월 2 일 1,054 (LV) ± 2.94 % 49 % 47 % 2 % - 1 % [d] 1%
SurveyMonkey / Axios 2020 년 10 월 20 일 – 11 월 2 일 8,792 (LV) ± 1.5 % 49 % [e] 49 % - -
AYTM / 포부 2020 년 10 월 30 일 – 11 월 1 일 517 (LV) 43 % 45 % - -
변화 연구 / CNBC 2020 년 10 월 29 일 – 11 월 1 일 806 (LV) ± 3.45 % 48 % 51 % 0 % 0 % 1%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./ 미국 위대함을위한 센터 [A] 2020 년 10 월 29 일 – 11 월 1 일 400 (LV) ± 4.9 % 47 % 46 % 2 % - 2 % [f] 삼%
Quinnipiac 대학 2020 년 10 월 28 일 – 11 월 1 일 1,657 (LV) ± 2.4 % 42 % 47 % - - 1 % [g] 9 %
흔들림 2020 년 10 월 27 일 – 11 월 1 일 1,261 (LV) ± 3.7 % 46 % 53 % 1% 1%
진행 데이터 2020 년 10 월 27 일 – 11 월 1 일 1,202 (LV) ± 2.8 % 48 % 51 % 1% 1% 0 % [h]
Ipsos / Reuters 2020 년 10 월 27 일 – 11 월 1 일 670 (LV) ± 4.3 % 46 % [i] 50 % 1% 0 % 1 % [j]
46 % [k] 50 % - - 2 % [l] 2 %
47 % [m] 51 % - - 2 % [n]
Frederick Polls / Compete Everywhere [B] 2020 년 10 월 30 ~ 31 일 768 (LV) ± 3.5 % 49 % 51 % - -
Pulse Opinion Research / Rasmussen 보고서 2020 년 10 월 29 ~ 31 일 800 (LV) ± 3.5 % 47 % 48 % - - 3 % [o]
시에나 칼리지 / NYT 업샷 2020 년 10 월 27 ~ 31 일 1,451 (LV) ± 3.2 % 44 % 47 % 2 % 1% 0 % [p] 6 % [q]
모닝 컨설 트 2020 년 10 월 22 ~ 31 일 4,451 (LV) ± 2 % 45 % 52 % - -
세인트 피트 Polls 2020 년 10 월 29 ~ 30 일 2,758 (LV) ± 1.9 % 48 % 49 % 1% - 2 %
RMG 연구 / PoliticalIQ 2020 년 10 월 28 ~ 30 일 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8 % 47 % [i] 51 % - - 2 % [r] 0 %
45 % [s] 52 % - - 2 % [t] 0 %
48 % [u] 49 % - - 2 % [v] 0 %
Targoz 시장 조사 / PollSmart 2020 년 10 월 25 ~ 30 일 1,027 (LV) 47 % 51 % - - 2 % [w]
AtlasIntel 2020 년 10 월 28 ~ 29 일 786 (LV) ± 3 % 48.5 % 48.5 % - - 삼%
공공 정책 투표 / 기후 전력 2020 [C] 2020 년 10 월 28 ~ 29 일 941 (V) 45 % 52 % - - 삼%
하버드-해리스 / 더 힐 2020 년 10 월 26 ~ 29 일 1,148 (LV) ±> = 3 % 47 % 50 % - - 삼%
ABC / 워싱턴 포스트 2020 년 10 월 24 ~ 29 일 824 (LV) ± 4 % 50 % 48 % 1% 0 % 0 % [x] 0 %
Redfield & Wilton 전략 2020 년 10 월 27 ~ 28 일 1,587 (LV) 46 % 50 % 1% 0 % 0 % 삼%
트라팔가 그룹 2020 년 10 월 25 ~ 28 일 1,088 (LV) ± 2.89 % 50 % 47 % 2 % - 1 % [y] 1%
몬 머스 대학교 2020 년 10 월 24 ~ 28 일 509 (RV) ± 4.7 % 45 % 50 % 1% 0 % 1 % [z] 2 %
509 (LV) 45 % [aa] 51 % - -
46 % [ab] 50 % - -
SurveyMonkey / Axios 2020 년 10 월 1 ~ 28 일 14,571 (LV) 50 % 48 % - -
Marist College / NBC 2020 년 10 월 25 ~ 27 일 743 (LV) ± 4.4 % 47 % 51 % - - 1% 1%
Quinnipiac 대학 2020 년 10 월 23 ~ 27 일 1,324 (LV) ± 2.7 % 42 % 45 % - - 1 % [ac] 11 %
Ipsos / Reuters 2020 년 10 월 21 ~ 27 일 704 (LV) ± 4.2 % 47 % [i] 48 % 1% 1% 2 % [광고]
47 % [ae] 49 % - - 3 % [af] 2 %
흔들림 2020 년 10 월 23 ~ 26 일 605 (LV) ± 5.4 % 51 % 46 % 2 % 1%
YouGov / 플로리다 주립 대학교 정치 연구소 2020 년 10 월 16 ~ 26 일 1,200 (LV) ± 3.2 % 46 % 48 % - - 6 %
Wick Surveys 2020 년 10 월 24 ~ 25 일 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1 % 50 % 47 % - -
플로리다 애틀랜틱 대학교 2020 년 10 월 24 ~ 25 일 937 (LV) ± 3.1 % 48 % 50 % - - 2 % [ag]
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./ 미국 위대함을위한 센터 [A] 2020 년 10 월 23 ~ 25 일 400 (LV) ± 4.9 % 49 % 44 % 2 % - 3 % [아] 삼%
Univision / University of Houston / Latino
Decisions / North Star Opinion Research
2020 년 10 월 17 ~ 25 일 743 (RV) ± 3.56 % 46 % 49 % - - 2 % [ai] 삼%
라이언 타이슨 (R) 출시일 : 2020 년 10 월 24 일 – (V) [aj] 47 % 45 % - - 3 % [ak] 4 %
Gravis 마케팅 2020 년 10 월 24 일 665 (LV) ± 3.8 % 48 % 47 % - - 5 %
YouGov / CBS 2020 년 10 월 20 ~ 23 일 1,228 (LV) ± 3.6 % 48 % 50 % - - 2 % [al] 0 %
St. Pete Polls / Florida Politics 2020 년 10 월 21 ~ 22 일 2,527 (LV) ± 2 % 47 % 49 % - - 2 % [오전] 2 %
RMG 연구 / PoliticalIQ 2020 년 10 월 20 ~ 22 일 800 (LV) ± 3.5 % 48 % [i] 50 % - - 1 % [an] 1%
46 % [ao] 52 % - - 1 % [ap] 1%
48 % [수성] 46 % - - 1 % [ar] 1%
Pulse Opinion Research / Rasmussen 보고서 2020 년 10 월 20 ~ 21 일 800 (LV) ± 3.5 % 50 % 46 % - - 3 % [as] 삼%
Ipsos / Reuters 2020 년 10 월 14 ~ 21 일 662 (LV) ± 4.3 % 46 % [i] 51 % 1% 0 % 2 % [at]
46 % [au] 50 % - - 1 % [ 평균 ] 삼%
시민 데이터 2020 년 10 월 17 ~ 20 일 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1 % 45 % 50 % 1% 0 % 1% 4 %
Civiqs / Daily Kos 2020 년 10 월 17 ~ 20 일 863 (LV) ± 3.5 % 47 % 51 % - - 1 % [aw] 1%
CNN / SSRS 2020 년 10 월 15 ~ 20 일 847 (LV) ± 4 % 46 % 50 % 1% 1% 0 % [ax] 1%
모닝 컨설 트 2020 년 10 월 11 ~ 20 일 4,685 (LV) ± 1.4 % 45 % 52 % - -
변화 연구 / CNBC 2020 년 10 월 16 ~ 19 일 547 (LV) [c] 45 % 50 % - -
노스 플로리다 대학교 2020 년 10 월 12 ~ 16 일 863 (LV) ± 3.3 % 47 % 48 % - - 1 % [일] 삼%
HarrisX / The Hill [1] 2020 년 10 월 12 ~ 15 일 965 (LV) 48 % 48 % - - 4 %
Ipsos / Reuters 2020 년 10 월 7 ~ 14 일 653 (LV) ± 4.4 % 47 % [i] 50 % 0 % 0 % 2 % [az]
47 % [ba] 49 % - - 1 % [bb] 삼%
트라팔가 그룹 2020 년 10 월 11 ~ 13 일 1,051 (LV) ± 2.94 % 48 % 46 % 2 % 1% 1 % [BC] 2 %
Redfield & Wilton 전략 2020 년 10 월 10 ~ 13 일 1,519 (LV) 44 % [c] 50 % 1% 0 %
St. Pete Polls / Florida Politics 2020 년 10 월 11 ~ 12 일 2,215 (LV) ± 2.1 % 47 % 49 % - - 1 % [bd] 2 %
에머슨 칼리지 2020 년 10 월 10 ~ 12 일 690 (LV) ± 3.7 % 48 % [be] 51 % - - 1 % [bf]
메이슨-딕슨 2020 년 10 월 8 ~ 12 일 625 (LV) ± 4 % 45 % 48 % - - 1 % [bg] 6 %
Clearview 연구 2020 년 10 월 7 ~ 12 일 550 (LV) ± 4.18 % 40 % [i] 47 % - - 4%[bh] 9%
39%[bi] 48% - - 4%[bj] 9%
41%[bk] 46% - - 4%[bl] 9%
Morning Consult Oct 2–11, 2020 4,785 (LV) ± 1.4% 46% 51% - -
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 9–10, 2020 750 (LV) 42%[c] 53% 1% 0%
Florida Atlantic University Oct 9–10, 2020 644 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 51% - - 2%[bm]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 4–8, 2020 800 (LV) 46%[i] 48% 1% 1% 1% 4%
44%[bn] 50% 1% 1% 1% 4%
47%[bo] 46% 1% 1% 1% 4%
Insider Advantage/Hannity Exclusive (R) Oct 6–7, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 46% 1% - 10%
YouGov/CCES Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 3,755 (LV) 47% 49% - -
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 678 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 49% - - 1%[bp] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 4–6, 2020 998 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 49% 1% 0% 1%[bq] 6%
Quinnipiac University Oct 1–5, 2020 1,256 (LV) ± 2.8% 40% 51% - - 1%[br] 7%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 2–4, 2020 560 (LV) 46% 50% - -
Suffolk University/USA Today[2] Oct 1–4, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45%[i] 45% 2% 0%[bs] 2%[bt] 6%
46%[bu] 45% - - 2%[bv] 7%
University of North Florida Oct 1–4, 2020 3,134 (LV) ± 1.8% 45% 51% - - 1%[bw] 3%[bx]
St. Leo University Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 489 (LV) 44% 50% - - 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 710 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 47% 2% 1% 0%[by] 8%[bz]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 12,962 (LV) 47% 51% - - 2%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce Sep 23–29, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 44%[c] 49% - -
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] Sep 23–26, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 46% 3% - 8%[ca]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 23–25, 2020 1,073 (LV) ± 2.99% 43% 48% 1% 1% 1%[cb] 7%
St. Pete Polls Sep 21–22, 2020 2,906 (LV) ± 1.8% 47% 50% - - 2%[cc] 2%
Data For Progress[D] Sep 15–22, 2020 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% - - 11%
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20, 2020 702 (LV) 46% 49% - -
ABC/Washington Post Sep 15–20, 2020 613 (LV) ± 4.5% 51% 47% - - 1%[cd] 1%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[E] Sep 17–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 51% - -
YouGov/CBS Sep 15–18, 2020 1,205 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 48% - - 1%[ce] 5%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–17, 2020 586 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 47% - - 2%[cf] 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–14, 2020 1,158 (LV) ± 2.88% 44% 47% 1% 1% 1%[cg] 6%
Monmouth University Sep 10–13, 2020 428 (RV) ± 4.7% 45% 50% 2% 0% 1%[ch] 3%
428 (LV) 45%[ci] 50% - - 1%[cj] 3%
46%[ck] 49% - - 1%[cl] 3%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report Aug 29 – Sep 13, 2020 1,009 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 43% - - 4%[cm] 11%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 11–12, 2020 631 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 50% - - 0%[cn]
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics/AARP Sep 7–8, 2020 2,689 (LV) ± 1.9% 47% 50% - - 2%[co] 2%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 30 – Sep 8, 2020 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 48% - - 2%[cp] 4%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 3,914 (LV) ± (2%-4%) 43%[cq] 50% - -
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6, 2020 1,144 (LV) 46% 49% - - 4%[cr]
Marist College/NBC Aug 31 – Sep 5, 2020 760 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 48% - - 1% 2%
Trafalgar Group Sep 1–3, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 2% - 1%[cs] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2020 1,093 (LV) ± 2.96% 43% 48% 1% 1% 1%[ct] 6%
GQR Research (D) Aug 26 – Sep 3, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 51% - -
Quinnipiac Aug 28 – Sep 1, 2020 1,235 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 48% - - 1%[cu] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 12,286 (LV) 50% 48% - - 2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30, 2020 3,790 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 47% 49% - -
Opinium/The Guardian[3] Aug 21–26, 2020 684 (LV) 43% 50% - - 1% 6%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23, 2020 1,262 (LV) 46% 49% - -
PPP Aug 21–22, 2020 671 (V) ± 3.8% 44% 48% - - 7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16, 2020 1,280 (LV) 41% 49% 1% - 1%[cv] 7%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16, 2020 3,484 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 45% 50% - -
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[F] Aug 11–15, 2020 750 (LV) ± 4% 44% 46% 2% - 1%[cw] 6%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9, 2020 469 (LV) 44% 50% - -
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[G] Aug 2–4, 2020 400 (LV) 49% 49% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 13,945 (LV) 48% 49% - - 2%
Change Research/CNBC[4] Jul 24–26, 2020 685 (LV) 45% 48% - -
Morning Consult Jul 17–26, 2020 3,760 (LV) ± 1.6% 46%[cx] 49% - -
Morning Consult Jul 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[cy] 45% 49% - -
CNN/SSRS Jul 18–24, 2020 880 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 51% - - 2%[cz] 2%
Zogby Analytics Jul 21–23, 2020 811 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 43% 3% 2% 9%
Mason-Dixon Jul 20–23, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 50% - - 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–21, 2020 1,121 (LV) 41% 48% 1% 1% 1%[da] 8%
Quinnipiac University Jul 16–20, 2020 924 (RV) ± 4.3% 38% 51% - - 6%[db] 5%
Morning Consult Jul 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[dc] 45% 50% - -
Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete Polls Jul 13–14, 2020 3,018 (RV) ± 1.8% 44% 50% - - 2%[dd] 3%
Gravis Marketing Jul 13, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 53% - - 4%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12, 2020 1,128 (LV) 43% 50% - -
YouGov/CBS Jul 7–10, 2020 1,206 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 48% - - 2%[de] 8%
Morning Consult Jun 26 – Jul 5, 2020 – (LV)[df] 46% 49% - -
Trafalgar Group Jun 29 – Jul 2, 2020 1,072 (LV) ± 2.91% 46% 46% - - 5%[dg] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 5,663 (LV) 51% 47% - - 2%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28, 2020 951 (LV)[c] 45% 50% - -
Morning Consult Jun 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[dh] 45% 49% - -
Fox News Jun 20–23, 2020 1,010 (RV) ± 3% 40% 49% - - 6%[di] 6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Jun 8–18, 2020 651 (RV) ± 4.6% 41% 47% - - 4%[dj] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–15, 2020 1,079 (LV) ± 2.98% 41% 45% 1% 1% 1%[dk] 11%
Morning Consult Jun 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[dl] 45% 50% - -
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14, 2020 713 (LV)[c] 43% 50% - - 3%[dm]
Gravis Marketing/OANN Released Jun 11, 2020 – (V)[dn] 50% 50% - -
TIPP/American Greatness PAC[A] Jun 9–11, 2020 875 (LV) 40% 51% - - 4%[do] 5%
Morning Consult May 27 – Jun 5, 2020 – (LV)[dp] 48% 47% - -
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31, 2020 1,186 (LV)[c] 45% 48% - - 2% 4%
Cygnal (R) May 18–30, 2020 881 (LV) ± 3.3% 43.8% 47% - - 3.3%[dq] 5.9%
St. Pete Polls May 26–27, 2020 4,763 (RV) ± 1.4% 46.7% 47.5% - - 2.7%[dr] 3.1%
Morning Consult May 17–26, 2020 3,593 (LV) 48%[ds] 47% - -
Morning Consult May 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[dt] 48% 47% - -
Point Blank Political May 14–17, 2020 2,149 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 45% 1%[du] <1%[dv] 2% 8%
Point Blank Political May 14–17, 2020 2,149 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% - -
Morning Consult May 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[dw] 50% 45% - -
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14, 2020 1,014 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 45% - - 3%[dx] 10%
Florida Atlantic University May 8–12, 2020 928 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 53% - -
Fox News Apr 18–21, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% - - 3% 7%
Quinnipiac University Apr 16–20, 2020 1,385 (RV) ± 2.6% 42% 46% - - 3% 7%
St. Pete Polls Apr 16–17, 2020 5,659 (RV) ± 1.3% 48% 48% - - 4%
University of North Florida Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2020 3,244 (RV) ± 1.7% 40% 46% - - 8%
AtlasIntel Mar 14–16, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 45% - - 10%
Univision Mar 6–12, 2020 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 45% - - 7%
Florida Atlantic University Mar 5–7, 2020 1,216 (RV) ± 2.7% 51% 49% - -
University of North Florida Feb, 2020 696 (LV) 45% 45% - - 10%[dy]
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 51% - - 8%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 668 (RV) 48% 49% - - 3%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 51% - -
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 49% 45% - -
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% - - 8%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 46% - -
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 48% - - 6%[dz] 3%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50.5% 49.5% - -
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 41% 50% - - 1% 6%
St. Pete Polls Jun 15–16, 2019 3,095 (LV) ± 1.8% 47% 47% - - 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 50% - -
WPA Intelligence Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 48% 44% - - 7%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 36% 52% 12%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 672 (RV) 44% 50% 6%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 49% 44%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 45% 15%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 664 (RV) 49% 45% 7%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 50% 50%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43%
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% 6%
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 42% 7%[ea] 9%
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 44% 1% 9%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 41% 8%[eb] 7%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 52% 48%
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 47%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 43% 16%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 662 (RV) 48% 44% 8%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Mar 14–16, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 11%
Univision Mar 6–12, 2020 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 42% 8%
Florida Atlantic University Mar 5–7, 2020 1,216 (LV) ± 2.7% 53% 47%
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% 11%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 671 (RV) 48% 48% 4%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 47% 53%
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 44% 7%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 44%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50.5% 49.5%
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 42% 48% 1% 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 49%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 44% 14%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 661 (RV) 47% 47% 6%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 51%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43%
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% 7%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 42%
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 46% 6%[ec] 6%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50% 50%
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 47% 1% 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 828 (LV) ± 3.4% 39% 48% 14%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Oprah
Winfrey (D)
Other Undecided
Dixie Strategies Jan 9–10, 2018 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 24% 15% 13%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] Jun 14–16, 2019 679 (V) ± 3.8% 44% 51% 6%
Mason-Dixon Jan 14–17, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9%

with Donald Trump and generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Quinnipiac University Mar 6–11, 2019 1,058 (V) ± 3.7% 31% 51%[ed] 18%[ee]

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 49% 8%[ef] 5%

with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
St. Leo University Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 489 (LV) ± 3.0% 46.8% 46.7% 6.5%

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 46% 8%[eg] 6%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Florida[35]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
5,668,731 51.22% +2.20%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
5,297,045 47.86% +0.04%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
70,324 0.64% -1.56%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
14,721 0.13% -0.55%
Reform Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
5,966 0.05% -0.05%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman
5,712 0.05% N/A
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
3,902 0.04% -0.13%
Write-in 1,055 0.01% -0.26%
Total votes 11,067,456 100.00%

By county

County Donald J. Trump

Republican

Joseph R. Biden

Democratic

Jo Jorgensen

Libertarian

Howie Hawkins

Green

Rocky De La Fuente

Reform

Gloria La Riva

Socialism and Liberation

Don Blankenship

Constitution

Other Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Alachua 50,972 35.74% 89,704 62.90% 1,390 0.97% 302 0.21% 70 0.05% 94 0.07% 52 0.04% 20 0.01% -38,732 -27.16% 142,604
Baker 11,911 84.72% 2,037 14.49% 93 0.66% 10 0.07% 4 0.03% 3 0.02% 1 0.01% 0 0.00% 9,874 70.23% 14,059
Bay 66,097 71.05% 25,614 27.53% 1,004 1.08% 142 0.15% 54 0.06% 45 0.05% 52 0.06% 16 0.02% 40,483 43.52% 93,024
Bradford 10,334 75.81% 3,160 23.18% 110 0.81% 11 0.08% 7 0.05% 3 0.02% 6 0.04% 1 0.01% 7,174 52.63% 13,632
Brevard 207,883 57.62% 148,549 41.18% 3,178 0.88% 553 0.15% 222 0.06% 164 0.05% 171 0.05% 44 0.01% 59,334 16.45% 360,764
Broward 333,409 34.81% 618,752 64.61% 3,114 0.33% 1,253 0.13% 426 0.04% 417 0.04% 238 0.02% 63 0.01% -285,343 -29.80% 957,672
Calhoun 5,274 80.82% 1,209 18.53% 29 0.44% 4 0.06% 4 0.06% 4 0.06% 2 0.03% 0 0.00% 4,065 62.29% 6,526
Charlotte 73,243 62.96% 42,273 36.34% 565 0.49% 129 0.11% 49 0.04% 32 0.03% 45 0.04% 4 0.00% 30,970 26.62% 116,340
Citrus 65,352 70.11% 27,092 29.07% 548 0.59% 86 0.09% 42 0.05% 30 0.03% 49 0.05% 9 0.01% 38,260 41.05% 93,208
Clay 84,480 67.91% 38,317 30.80% 1,286 1.03% 153 0.12% 45 0.04% 55 0.04% 57 0.05% 12 0.01% 46,163 37.11% 124,405
Collier 128,950 62.05% 77,621 37.35% 889 0.43% 186 0.09% 64 0.03% 50 0.02% 39 0.02% 19 0.01% 51,329 24.70% 207,818
Columbia 23,836 72.14% 8,914 26.98% 224 0.68% 28 0.08% 12 0.04% 20 0.06% 8 0.02% 0 0.00% 14,922 45.16% 33,042
Desoto 8,313 65.67% 4,259 33.64% 52 0.41% 8 0.06% 12 0.09% 11 0.09% 4 0.03% 0 0.00% 4,054 32.02% 12,659
Dixie 6,759 82.76% 1,365 16.71% 27 0.33% 5 0.06% 5 0.06% 2 0.02% 4 0.05% 0 0.00% 5,394 66.05% 8,167
Duval 233,762 47.43% 252,556 51.25% 4,788 0.97% 772 0.16% 319 0.06% 328 0.07% 218 0.04% 77 0.02% -18,794 -3.81% 492,820
Escambia 96,674 56.74% 70,929 41.63% 2,146 1.26% 256 0.15% 105 0.06% 137 0.08% 92 0.05% 33 0.02% 25,745 15.11% 170,372
Flagler 43,043 60.02% 28,161 39.27% 359 0.50% 69 0.10% 30 0.04% 29 0.04% 20 0.03% 5 0.01% 14,882 20.75% 71,716
Franklin 4,675 68.26% 2,120 30.95% 27 0.39% 12 0.18% 4 0.06% 8 0.12% 3 0.04% 0 0.00% 2,555 37.30% 6,849
Gadsden 7,465 31.42% 16,153 67.98% 96 0.40% 21 0.09% 8 0.03% 10 0.04% 9 0.04% 0 0.00% -8,688 -36.56% 23,762
Gilchrist 7,895 81.52% 1,700 17.55% 61 0.63% 13 0.13% 6 0.06% 2 0.02% 5 0.05% 3 0.03% 6,195 63.96% 9,685
Glades 3,782 72.83% 1,385 26.67% 21 0.40% 4 0.08% 0 0.00% 1 0.02% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 2,397 46.16% 5,193
Gulf 6,113 74.89% 1,985 24.32% 48 0.59% 5 0.06% 6 0.07% 0 0.00% 6 0.07% 0 0.00% 4,128 50.57% 8,163
Hamilton 3,815 65.44% 1,963 33.67% 33 0.57% 8 0.14% 6 0.10% 2 0.03% 2 0.03% 1 0.02% 1,852 31.77% 5,830
Hardee 6,122 72.15% 2,298 27.08% 40 0.47% 8 0.09% 10 0.12% 6 0.07% 1 0.01% 0 0.00% 3,824 45.07% 8,485
Hendry 7,906 61.10% 4,929 38.09% 65 0.50% 13 0.10% 11 0.09% 8 0.06% 7 0.05% 1 0.01% 2,977 23.01% 12,940
Hernando 70,412 64.64% 37,519 34.45% 686 0.63% 151 0.14% 62 0.06% 44 0.04% 40 0.04% 8 0.01% 32,893 30.20% 108,922
Highlands 34,873 66.84% 16,938 32.47% 223 0.43% 53 0.10% 28 0.05% 24 0.05% 28 0.05% 3 0.01% 17,935 34.38% 52,170
Hillsborough 327,398 45.98% 376,367 52.86% 5,665 0.80% 1,187 0.17% 574 0.08% 529 0.07% 270 0.04% 73 0.01% -48,969 -6.88% 712,063
Holmes 8,080 89.10% 924 10.19% 48 0.53% 9 0.10% 2 0.02% 1 0.01% 4 0.04% 0 0.00% 7,156 78.91% 9,068
Indian River 58,872 60.39% 37,844 38.82% 534 0.55% 117 0.12% 43 0.04% 33 0.03% 38 0.04% 3 0.00% 21,028 21.57% 97,484
Jackson 15,488 69.08% 6,766 30.18% 116 0.52% 13 0.06% 13 0.06% 13 0.06% 5 0.02% 5 0.02% 8,722 38.90% 22,419
Jefferson 4,479 53.00% 3,897 46.11% 46 0.54% 13 0.15% 4 0.05% 4 0.05% 5 0.06% 3 0.04% 582 6.89% 8,451
Lafayette 3,128 85.51% 510 13.94% 14 0.38% 2 0.05% 1 0.03% 1 0.03% 2 0.05% 0 0.00% 2,618 71.57% 3,658
Lake 125,859 59.56% 83,505 39.52% 1,385 0.66% 254 0.12% 120 0.06% 96 0.05% 79 0.04% 16 0.01% 42,354 20.04% 211,314
Lee 233,247 59.21% 157,695 40.03% 2,016 0.51% 440 0.11% 187 0.05% 176 0.04% 121 0.03% 17 0.00% 75,552 19.18% 393,899
Leon 57,453 35.26% 103,517 63.54% 1,344 0.82% 271 0.17% 98 0.06% 122 0.07% 71 0.04% 53 0.03% -46,064 -28.27% 162,929
Levy 16,749 72.37% 6,205 26.81% 131 0.57% 25 0.11% 14 0.06% 7 0.03% 13 0.06% 1 0.00% 10,544 45.56% 23,145
Liberty 2,846 79.92% 694 19.49% 14 0.39% 2 0.06% 2 0.06% 2 0.06% 1 0.03% 0 0.00% 2,152 60.43% 3,561
Madison 5,576 59.45% 3,747 39.95% 32 0.34% 13 0.14% 3 0.03% 4 0.04% 5 0.05% 0 0.00% 1,829 19.50% 9,380
Manatee 124,987 57.61% 90,166 41.56% 1,287 0.59% 258 0.12% 96 0.04% 78 0.04% 69 0.03% 17 0.01% 34,821 16.05% 216,958
Marion 127,826 62.54% 74,858 36.63% 1,180 0.58% 228 0.11% 91 0.04% 98 0.05% 80 0.04% 15 0.01% 52,968 25.92% 204,376
Martin 61,168 61.96% 36,893 37.37% 448 0.45% 105 0.11% 38 0.04% 35 0.04% 37 0.04% 2 0.00% 24,275 24.59% 98,726
Miami-Dade 532,833 46.06% 617,864 53.41% 3,329 0.29% 1,289 0.11% 602 0.05% 579 0.05% 293 0.03% 27 0.00% -85,031 -7.35% 1,156,816
Monroe 25,693 53.49% 21,881 45.56% 348 0.72% 51 0.11% 26 0.05% 14 0.03% 12 0.02% 4 0.01% 3,812 7.94% 48,029
Nassau 42,566 72.38% 15,564 26.46% 569 0.97% 43 0.07% 28 0.05% 12 0.02% 24 0.04% 5 0.01% 27,002 45.91% 58,811
Okaloosa 79,798 68.57% 34,248 29.43% 1,881 1.62% 183 0.16% 76 0.07% 73 0.06% 79 0.07% 35 0.03% 45,550 39.14% 116,373
Okeechobee 11,470 71.89% 4,390 27.52% 66 0.41% 7 0.04% 8 0.05% 4 0.03% 8 0.05% 1 0.01% 7,080 44.38% 15,954
Orange 245,398 37.90% 395,014 61.02% 4,685 0.72% 1,146 0.18% 386 0.06% 444 0.07% 223 0.03% 107 0.02% -149,616 -23.11% 647,403
Osceola 73,480 42.61% 97,297 56.42% 964 0.56% 290 0.17% 166 0.10% 140 0.08% 70 0.04% 29 0.02% -23,817 -13.81% 172,436
Palm Beach 334,711 43.29% 433,572 56.08% 3,040 0.39% 891 0.12% 356 0.05% 335 0.04% 188 0.02% 65 0.01% -98,861 -12.79% 773,158
Pasco 179,621 59.48% 119,073 39.43% 2,265 0.75% 467 0.15% 200 0.07% 169 0.06% 142 0.05% 33 0.01% 60,548 20.05% 301,970
Pinellas 276,209 49.35% 277,450 49.57% 4,268 0.76% 912 0.16% 305 0.05% 311 0.06% 199 0.04% 61 0.01% -1,241 -0.22% 559,715
Polk 194,586 56.69% 145,049 42.26% 2,595 0.76% 425 0.12% 204 0.06% 217 0.06% 140 0.04% 40 0.01% 49,537 14.43% 343,256
Putnam 25,514 70.15% 10,527 28.94% 226 0.62% 50 0.14% 14 0.04% 21 0.06% 20 0.05% 1 0.00% 14,987 41.20% 36,373
Santa Rosa 77,385 72.37% 27,612 25.82% 1,645 1.54% 122 0.11% 60 0.06% 46 0.04% 55 0.05% 3 0.00% 49,773 46.55% 106,928
Sarasota 148,370 54.84% 120,110 44.39% 1,507 0.56% 284 0.10% 102 0.04% 105 0.04% 70 0.03% 27 0.01% 28,260 10.44% 270,575
Seminole 125,241 48.02% 132,528 50.81% 2,215 0.85% 406 0.16% 135 0.05% 137 0.05% 103 0.04% 50 0.02% -7,287 -2.79% 260,815
St. Johns 110,946 62.82% 63,850 36.15% 1,413 0.80% 210 0.12% 101 0.06% 54 0.03% 44 0.02% 4 0.00% 47,096 26.66% 176,622
St. Lucie 86,831 50.43% 84,137 48.87% 768 0.45% 209 0.12% 71 0.04% 82 0.05% 61 0.04% 10 0.01% 2,694 1.56% 172,169
Sumter 62,761 67.86% 29,341 31.73% 269 0.29% 39 0.04% 25 0.03% 20 0.02% 29 0.03% 1 0.00% 33,420 36.14% 92,485
Suwannee 16,410 77.93% 4,485 21.30% 119 0.57% 23 0.11% 6 0.03% 8 0.04% 6 0.03% 0 0.00% 11,925 56.63% 21,057
Taylor 7,751 76.54% 2,299 22.70% 52 0.51% 11 0.11% 3 0.03% 6 0.06% 3 0.03% 2 0.02% 5,452 53.84% 10,127
Union 5,133 82.19% 1,053 16.86% 42 0.67% 5 0.08% 4 0.06% 3 0.05% 5 0.08% 0 0.00% 4,080 65.33% 6,245
Volusia 173,821 56.54% 130,575 42.47% 2,156 0.70% 390 0.13% 160 0.05% 173 0.06% 141 0.05% 23 0.01% 43,246 14.07% 307,439
Wakulla 12,874 69.95% 5,351 29.08% 135 0.73% 18 0.10% 10 0.05% 6 0.03% 10 0.05% 0 0.00% 7,523 40.88% 18,404
Walton 32,947 75.37% 10,338 23.65% 336 0.77% 43 0.10% 16 0.04% 15 0.03% 13 0.03% 3 0.01% 22,609 51.72% 43,711
Washington 9,876 80.12% 2,347 19.04% 69 0.56% 15 0.12% 5 0.04% 10 0.08% 5 0.04% 0 0.00% 7,529 61.08% 12,327
Totals 5,668,731 51.22% 5,297,045 47.86% 70,324 0.64% 14,721 0.13% 5,966 0.05% 5,712 0.05% 3,902 0.04% 1,055 0.05% 371,686 3.36% 11,067,456

By congressional district

District Trump Biden Representative

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Ex-felons

United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex-crimes.[36] The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which was speculated to have created further problems for ex-felons when they voted in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.[37]

Miami-Dade County

In Miami-Dade County, the majority of Trump support came from the west and the majority of Biden support came from the east. People of Mexican, Haitian, and African descent tended to vote for Biden, while people of Cuban and Colombian descent did so for Trump.[38] About two thirds of residents of Hialeah voted for Trump, whereas Trump and Clinton split the vote four years prior.[39] Sabrina Rodriguez of Politico wrote "a vote for Trump has become about more than just him, or even the Republican Party. It’s about patriotism."[40] Due to the heavy presence of the Cuban-American community, Hialeah traditionally, as of 2020, leaned towards Republican politics.[41]

Residents of Cuban descent often had an antagonism against leftist movements due to associations with Fidel Castro.[42] Trump sought to attract these voters by implementing anti-Cuba policies.[43] The courting of Miami Cubans, including those who had recently arrived in the U.S. and those who are of younger demographics, contributed to Trump taking Florida's electoral votes.[44]

Additionally Trump made efforts to target other Hispanic demographics.[39]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  6. ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  8. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  9. ^ a b c d e f g h i Standard VI response
  10. ^ West (B) with 1%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
  11. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  12. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  13. ^ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  14. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  16. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  17. ^ Includes "Refused"
  18. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  19. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  20. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  21. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  22. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  23. ^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
  24. ^ "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  25. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  26. ^ "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with 0%
  27. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  28. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  30. ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  31. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  32. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  33. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  34. ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  35. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  36. ^ Not yet released
  37. ^ "Refused" with 3%
  38. ^ "Other third party" with 2%
  39. ^ "Third Party" with 2%
  40. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  41. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  42. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  43. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  44. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  45. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  46. ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  47. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  48. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  49. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  50. ^ "Other" and "None of these" with 0%
  51. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  52. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  53. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  54. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  55. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  56. ^ "Third party" with 1%
  57. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  58. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  59. ^ "One of the other party or independent tickets" with 1%
  60. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  61. ^ Under a +2 Democratic turnout model
  62. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  63. ^ Under a conservative +2 Republican turnout model
  64. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  65. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  66. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  67. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  68. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  69. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  70. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  71. ^ No voters
  72. ^ "Refused" with 2%; La Riva (PSOL) with 1%; Blankenship (C), Fuente (A) and "other" with no voters
  73. ^ With the preferences of La Riva and Jorgensen voters in an election featuring only Biden and Trump
  74. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%
  75. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  76. ^ Includes "Refused"
  77. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  78. ^ Includes "Refused"
  79. ^ Includes "Refused"
  80. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  81. ^ "Third party" with 2%
  82. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "other" and would not vote with no voters
  83. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 1%
  84. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  85. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  86. ^ "No one" with 1%
  87. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  88. ^ "Other" with 1%
  89. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  90. ^ "Other" with 1%
  91. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
  92. ^ "Someone else" with 0%
  93. ^ "Third party" with 2%
  94. ^ Would not vote with 2%
  95. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  96. ^ "Other/not sure" with 4%
  97. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  98. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  99. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  100. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  101. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  102. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  103. ^ Not yet released
  104. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Neither" 1%
  105. ^ "Another third party/write-in" with 1%
  106. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  107. ^ Not yet released
  108. ^ "Third-party candidate" with 2%
  109. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  110. ^ Not yet released
  111. ^ "Other party candidate" with 5%
  112. ^ Not yet released
  113. ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  114. ^ "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  115. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  116. ^ Not yet released
  117. ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  118. ^ Not yet released
  119. ^ "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
  120. ^ Not yet released
  121. ^ "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
  122. ^ "Third party" with 2.7%
  123. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  124. ^ Not yet released
  125. ^ "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
  126. ^ "Green nominee" with 0.4%
  127. ^ Not yet released
  128. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  129. ^ Includes "Refused"
  130. ^ Wouldn't vote with 6%
  131. ^ Wouldn't vote with 7%
  132. ^ Wouldn't vote with 8%
  133. ^ Wouldn't vote with 6%
  134. ^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
  135. ^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
  136. ^ Wouldn't vote with 8%
  137. ^ Wouldn't vote with 8%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ^ Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  3. ^ Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  5. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. ^ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  7. ^ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  8. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters

References

  1. ^ November 3, 2020 General Election, Florida Department of State, Division of Elections.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Cruise ship hotels, zoo parties and an NBA arena: Miami's Democratic convention pitch". miamiherald. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
  5. ^ "City of Milwaukee 1 of 3 finalists to host 2020 Democratic National Convention". FOX6Now.com. June 20, 2018. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
  6. ^ Glauber, Bill (August 22, 2018). "Selection committee for 2020 Democratic Convention will visit Milwaukee next week". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
  7. ^ Haberman, Maggie (November 4, 2019). "Trump, Lifelong New Yorker, Declares Himself a Resident of Florida". The New York Times.
  8. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Goldmacher, Shane; Thrush, Glenn (November 4, 2020). "Big gains among Latinos in the Miami area power Trump to victory in Florida". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  9. ^ "Florida Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  10. ^ "Florida 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  11. ^ "The Political Graveyard: Duval County, Fla". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
  12. ^ "The Political Graveyard: Seminole County, Fla". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
  13. ^ "March 17, 2020 Primary Election". Florida Department of State. Florida Division of Elections. March 31, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  14. ^ "Florida Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  15. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  16. ^ Zhou, Li (January 21, 2019). "Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign". Vox. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  17. ^ Detrow, Scott (February 1, 2019). "Cory Booker Makes It Official: He's Running For President In 2020". NPR. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  18. ^ "First Democratic Debate 2019: Highlights, candidates and more". NBC News.
  19. ^ "March 17, 2020 Primary Election: Democratic Primary". Florida Department of State Division of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  20. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  22. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  23. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  24. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  25. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  26. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  27. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  28. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  29. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  30. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  31. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  32. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  33. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  34. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  35. ^ "November 3, 2020 General Election Official Results". Florida Department of State. November 17, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  36. ^ "Initiative Information". Florida Division of Elections. Retrieved September 26, 2018.
  37. ^ https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/09/11/us/trump-vs-biden
  38. ^ Viteri, Amy; Torres, Andrea (November 6, 2020). "Presidential election: Here is why eastern Miami-Dade is celebrating and western Miami-Dade is not". Local 10 Miami. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  39. ^ a b Daugherty, Alex; Smiley, David; Padró Ocasio, Bianca; Wieder, Ben (November 6, 2020). "How non-Cuban Hispanics in Miami helped deliver Florida for Donald Trump". Miami Herald. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  40. ^ "Will flag-waving Latinos win Florida for Trump?". Politico. October 16, 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  41. ^ Smiley, David (September 21, 2020). "Why some Cuban-Americans in Florida are supporting Biden over Trump". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved October 20, 2020.
  42. ^ "Cuban Americans show strong support for Trump". University of Miami. October 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  43. ^ Gomez Licon, Adriana (October 30, 2020). "With salsa, caravans, Cubans make last push to reelect Trump". Associated Press. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  44. ^ "How Miami Cubans disrupted Biden's path to a Florida win". Politico. November 4, 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.

Further reading

Videos

External links