플로리다에서 2020 미국 대통령 선거 - 2020 United States presidential election in Florida
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투표율 |
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카운티 결과
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2020 년 미국 플로리다 대선 은 2020 년 11 월 3 일 화요일에 50 개 주와 컬럼비아 특별구가 모두 참여한 2020 년 미국 선거 의 일환으로 열렸습니다 . [2] 플로리다 유권자들은 대중 투표를 통해 선거인단 에서 선거인단을 대표 할 선거인을 선택하고 , 공화당 후보자, 현직 도널드 트럼프 대통령 , 그리고 조 바이든 전 부통령 인 민주당 후보자 인 마이크 펜스 부통령을 반대 하며, 그리고 그의 러닝 메이트 캘리포니아 상원 의원 카말라 해리스 . 플로리다는 선거인단에서 29 표를 얻었습니다. [삼]
1972 년 민주당 전당 대회 를 주최 한 플로리다 주 마이애미 비치는 2020 년 민주당 전당 대회 를 주최 한 결선 진출 자였습니다 . [4] 다른 결선 진출자는 밀워키와 휴스턴이었습니다. Milwaukee는 궁극적으로 호스트로 선정되었습니다. [5] [6] 플로리다는 2016 년 뉴욕 을 고향으로 지정한 후 이번 선거에서 트럼프의 거주지였습니다 . [7] 그 결과 트럼프는 플로리다 거주자가 된 두 주요 정당의 첫 번째 후보자가되었습니다. Biden은 2020 년 3 월 17 일 2020 플로리다 민주당 대통령 예비 선거 에서 민주당 후보로 선정되었습니다 .
선거 이전에는 전체 여론 조사에서 Joe Biden 이 플로리다에서 선두를 차지했습니다. 그럼에도 불구하고 트럼프는 3.36 %의 마진으로 주를 이겼고, 2016 년 부터 힐러리 클린턴에 비해 1.2 %의 마진이 향상되었습니다 . 2004 년 이후 플로리다의 모든 대통령 선거에서 가장 큰 마진이었다 . 이것은 트럼프가 이번 재선 입찰에서 선샤인 주를 대표했기 때문이며 , 특히 마이애미-데이 드 카운티 에서 라틴계 유권자 들 사이의지지가 증가했기 때문입니다 . 특히 Biden은 클린턴의 29.4보다 훨씬 낮은 7.3 % 마진을 기록했습니다. 2016 년 마진 %. [8] 트럼프는 58 % 로 쿠바 계 라틴계를 보유한 반면 Biden은66 %의 푸에르토 리코 인과 50 %의 남미 인 . [9] [10] 이번 선거에서 플로리다는 전체적으로 7.3 점의 권리를 득표했는데, 이는 플로리다가 국가의 7.5 점을 득표 한 1992 년 이후 가장 먼 국가에서 투표 한 것 입니다.
이번 선거는 1992 년 이후 처음이었고 1960 년 이후 두 번째로 플로리다가 대통령 선거에서 패배 한 후보에게 갔다. 1960 년 이후 처음으로 오하이오 와 플로리다가 대선에서 패배 후보를 뽑은 것은 1992 년 이후 처음으로 플로리다가 공화당 원으로, 이웃 조지아 가 민주당 원으로 뽑혔습니다. 또한 이것은 2008 년 John McCain이 애리조나에서 우승 한 이후 공화당 후보가 고향에서 우승 한 첫 번째 선거였습니다 .
주 전체의 손실에도 불구하고 Biden은 1976 년 이후 Duval County 에서 우승 한 최초의 민주당 원이되었고 1948 년 이후 Seminole County 에서 우승 한 최초의 민주당 원이되었습니다 . [11] [12] Biden은 Pinellas 카운티를 다시 민주당으로 되돌 렸습니다 .
예비 선거
예비 선거는 2020 년 3 월 17 일에 치러졌습니다.
공화당 예비 선거
플로리다 국무 장관은 Rocky De La Fuente 를 주요 후보로 선포 했으며 따라서 자동으로 투표 용지에 포함될 가치가 있습니다.
민주당 예비 선거
: 세 민주당은 플로리다의 예비 선거 개최 시간 레이스에서 여전히 있었다 버몬트 상원 의원 버니 샌더스 , 전 부통령 조 바이든 , 그리고 대리점 에서 하와이 툴시 가바 . [15] [16] [17]
첫 번째 민주당 토론은 2019 년 6 월 말 이틀에 걸쳐 마이애미 에서 열렸습니다.이 토론은 여러 NBC 네트워크 에서 방송되었습니다 . [18]
후보자 | 투표 | % | 대의원 [20] |
---|---|---|---|
조 바이든 | 1,077,375 | 61.95 | 162 |
버니 샌더스 | 397,311 | 22.84 | 57 |
마이클 블룸버그 (철회) | 146,544 | 8.43 | 0 |
Pete Buttigieg (철회) | 39,886 | 2.29 | 0 |
엘리자베스 워렌 (철회) | 32,875 | 1.89 | 0 |
Amy Klobuchar (철회) | 17,276 | 0.99 | 0 |
툴시 개 버드 | 8,712 | 0.50 | 0 |
앤드류 양 (철회) | 5,286 | 0.30 | 0 |
마이클 베넷 (철회) | 4,244 | 0.24 | 0 |
Tom Steyer (철회) | 2,510 | 0.14 | 0 |
마리안 윌리엄슨 (철회) | 1,744 | 0.10 | 0 |
John Delaney (철회) | 1,583 | 0.09 | 0 |
Cory Booker (철회) | 1,507 | 0.09 | 0 |
Julián Castro (철회) | 1,036 | 0.06 | 0 |
Joe Sestak (철회) | 664 | 0.04 | 0 |
Deval Patrick (철회) | 661 | 0.04 | 0 |
합계 | 1,739,214 | 100 % | 219 |
총선거
예측
출처 | 순위 | 현재 |
---|---|---|
쿡 정치 보고서 [21] | 토스 업 | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
내부 선거 [22] | 기울기 D (뒤집기) | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
Sabato의 수정 구슬 [23] | 린 R | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
폴리 티코 [24] | 토스 업 | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
RCP [25] | 토스 업 | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
니스 카넨 [26] | 가능성 D (뒤집기) | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
CNN [27] | 토스 업 | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
이코노미스트 [28] | Lean D (플립) | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
CBS 뉴스 [29] | 토스 업 | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
270towin [30] | 토스 업 | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
ABC 뉴스 [31] | 토스 업 | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
NPR [32] | 토스 업 | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
NBC 뉴스 [33] | 토스 업 | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
538 [34] | Lean D (플립) | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 |
투표
그래픽 요약

집계 투표
폴 집계 소스 |
관리되는 날짜 |
업데이트 된 날짜 | 조 바이든 민주당 | 도널드 트럼프 공화당 | 기타 / 미정 [a] | 여유 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 승리 | 2020 년 10 월 24 일 – 11 월 1 일 | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 | 48.7 % | 46.0 % | 5.3 % | 바이든 +2.7 |
진짜 명확한 정치 | 2020 년 10 월 28 일 – 11 월 2 일 | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 | 47.9 % | 47.0 % | 5.1 % | 바이든 +0.9 |
FiveThirtyEight | 2020 년 11 월 2 일까지 | 2020 년 11 월 3 일 | 49.1 % | 46.6 % | 4.3 % | 바이든 +2.5 |
평균 | 48.6 % | 46.5 % | 4.9 % | 바이든 +2.1 |
주 투표
설문 조사 출처 |
관리 날짜 |
샘플 크기 [b] |
오차 한계 | 도널드 트럼프 공화당 | 조 바이든 민주당 | Jo Jorgensen Libertarian | 호위 호킨스 그린 | 다른 | 미정 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Insider Advantage / Fox 35 | 2020 년 11 월 1 ~ 2 일 [c] | 400 (LV) | ± 4.4 % | 48 % | 47 % | 2 % | - | – | 삼% |
트라팔가 그룹 | 2020 년 10 월 31 일 – 11 월 2 일 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 2.94 % | 49 % | 47 % | 2 % | - | 1 % [d] | 1% |
SurveyMonkey / Axios | 2020 년 10 월 20 일 – 11 월 2 일 | 8,792 (LV) | ± 1.5 % | 49 % [e] | 49 % | - | - | – | – |
AYTM / 포부 | 2020 년 10 월 30 일 – 11 월 1 일 | 517 (LV) | – | 43 % | 45 % | - | - | – | – |
변화 연구 / CNBC | 2020 년 10 월 29 일 – 11 월 1 일 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.45 % | 48 % | 51 % | 0 % | 0 % | – | 1% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./ 미국 위대함을위한 센터 [A] | 2020 년 10 월 29 일 – 11 월 1 일 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9 % | 47 % | 46 % | 2 % | - | 2 % [f] | 삼% |
Quinnipiac 대학 | 2020 년 10 월 28 일 – 11 월 1 일 | 1,657 (LV) | ± 2.4 % | 42 % | 47 % | - | - | 1 % [g] | 9 % |
흔들림 | 2020 년 10 월 27 일 – 11 월 1 일 | 1,261 (LV) | ± 3.7 % | 46 % | 53 % | 1% | 1% | – | – |
진행 데이터 | 2020 년 10 월 27 일 – 11 월 1 일 | 1,202 (LV) | ± 2.8 % | 48 % | 51 % | 1% | 1% | 0 % [h] | – |
Ipsos / Reuters | 2020 년 10 월 27 일 – 11 월 1 일 | 670 (LV) | ± 4.3 % | 46 % [i] | 50 % | 1% | 0 % | 1 % [j] | – |
46 % [k] | 50 % | - | - | 2 % [l] | 2 % | ||||
47 % [m] | 51 % | - | - | 2 % [n] | – | ||||
Frederick Polls / Compete Everywhere [B] | 2020 년 10 월 30 ~ 31 일 | 768 (LV) | ± 3.5 % | 49 % | 51 % | - | - | – | – |
Pulse Opinion Research / Rasmussen 보고서 | 2020 년 10 월 29 ~ 31 일 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5 % | 47 % | 48 % | - | - | 3 % [o] | – |
시에나 칼리지 / NYT 업샷 | 2020 년 10 월 27 ~ 31 일 | 1,451 (LV) | ± 3.2 % | 44 % | 47 % | 2 % | 1% | 0 % [p] | 6 % [q] |
모닝 컨설 트 | 2020 년 10 월 22 ~ 31 일 | 4,451 (LV) | ± 2 % | 45 % | 52 % | - | - | – | – |
세인트 피트 Polls | 2020 년 10 월 29 ~ 30 일 | 2,758 (LV) | ± 1.9 % | 48 % | 49 % | 1% | - | – | 2 % |
RMG 연구 / PoliticalIQ | 2020 년 10 월 28 ~ 30 일 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8 % | 47 % [i] | 51 % | - | - | 2 % [r] | 0 % |
45 % [s] | 52 % | - | - | 2 % [t] | 0 % | ||||
48 % [u] | 49 % | - | - | 2 % [v] | 0 % | ||||
Targoz 시장 조사 / PollSmart | 2020 년 10 월 25 ~ 30 일 | 1,027 (LV) | – | 47 % | 51 % | - | - | 2 % [w] | – |
AtlasIntel | 2020 년 10 월 28 ~ 29 일 | 786 (LV) | ± 3 % | 48.5 % | 48.5 % | - | - | – | 삼% |
공공 정책 투표 / 기후 전력 2020 [C] | 2020 년 10 월 28 ~ 29 일 | 941 (V) | – | 45 % | 52 % | - | - | – | 삼% |
하버드-해리스 / 더 힐 | 2020 년 10 월 26 ~ 29 일 | 1,148 (LV) | ±> = 3 % | 47 % | 50 % | - | - | – | 삼% |
ABC / 워싱턴 포스트 | 2020 년 10 월 24 ~ 29 일 | 824 (LV) | ± 4 % | 50 % | 48 % | 1% | 0 % | 0 % [x] | 0 % |
Redfield & Wilton 전략 | 2020 년 10 월 27 ~ 28 일 | 1,587 (LV) | – | 46 % | 50 % | 1% | 0 % | 0 % | 삼% |
트라팔가 그룹 | 2020 년 10 월 25 ~ 28 일 | 1,088 (LV) | ± 2.89 % | 50 % | 47 % | 2 % | - | 1 % [y] | 1% |
몬 머스 대학교 | 2020 년 10 월 24 ~ 28 일 | 509 (RV) | ± 4.7 % | 45 % | 50 % | 1% | 0 % | 1 % [z] | 2 % |
509 (LV) | 45 % [aa] | 51 % | - | - | – | – | |||
46 % [ab] | 50 % | - | - | – | – | ||||
SurveyMonkey / Axios | 2020 년 10 월 1 ~ 28 일 | 14,571 (LV) | – | 50 % | 48 % | - | - | – | – |
Marist College / NBC | 2020 년 10 월 25 ~ 27 일 | 743 (LV) | ± 4.4 % | 47 % | 51 % | - | - | 1% | 1% |
Quinnipiac 대학 | 2020 년 10 월 23 ~ 27 일 | 1,324 (LV) | ± 2.7 % | 42 % | 45 % | - | - | 1 % [ac] | 11 % |
Ipsos / Reuters | 2020 년 10 월 21 ~ 27 일 | 704 (LV) | ± 4.2 % | 47 % [i] | 48 % | 1% | 1% | 2 % [광고] | – |
47 % [ae] | 49 % | - | - | 3 % [af] | 2 % | ||||
흔들림 | 2020 년 10 월 23 ~ 26 일 | 605 (LV) | ± 5.4 % | 51 % | 46 % | 2 % | 1% | – | – |
YouGov / 플로리다 주립 대학교 정치 연구소 | 2020 년 10 월 16 ~ 26 일 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.2 % | 46 % | 48 % | - | - | – | 6 % |
Wick Surveys | 2020 년 10 월 24 ~ 25 일 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1 % | 50 % | 47 % | - | - | – | – |
플로리다 애틀랜틱 대학교 | 2020 년 10 월 24 ~ 25 일 | 937 (LV) | ± 3.1 % | 48 % | 50 % | - | - | 2 % [ag] | – |
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./ 미국 위대함을위한 센터 [A] | 2020 년 10 월 23 ~ 25 일 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9 % | 49 % | 44 % | 2 % | - | 3 % [아] | 삼% |
Univision / University of Houston / Latino Decisions / North Star Opinion Research | 2020 년 10 월 17 ~ 25 일 | 743 (RV) | ± 3.56 % | 46 % | 49 % | - | - | 2 % [ai] | 삼% |
라이언 타이슨 (R) | 출시일 : 2020 년 10 월 24 일 | – (V) [aj] | – | 47 % | 45 % | - | - | 3 % [ak] | 4 % |
Gravis 마케팅 | 2020 년 10 월 24 일 | 665 (LV) | ± 3.8 % | 48 % | 47 % | - | - | – | 5 % |
YouGov / CBS | 2020 년 10 월 20 ~ 23 일 | 1,228 (LV) | ± 3.6 % | 48 % | 50 % | - | - | 2 % [al] | 0 % |
St. Pete Polls / Florida Politics | 2020 년 10 월 21 ~ 22 일 | 2,527 (LV) | ± 2 % | 47 % | 49 % | - | - | 2 % [오전] | 2 % |
RMG 연구 / PoliticalIQ | 2020 년 10 월 20 ~ 22 일 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5 % | 48 % [i] | 50 % | - | - | 1 % [an] | 1% |
46 % [ao] | 52 % | - | - | 1 % [ap] | 1% | ||||
48 % [수성] | 46 % | - | - | 1 % [ar] | 1% | ||||
Pulse Opinion Research / Rasmussen 보고서 | 2020 년 10 월 20 ~ 21 일 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5 % | 50 % | 46 % | - | - | 3 % [as] | 삼% |
Ipsos / Reuters | 2020 년 10 월 14 ~ 21 일 | 662 (LV) | ± 4.3 % | 46 % [i] | 51 % | 1% | 0 % | 2 % [at] | – |
46 % [au] | 50 % | - | - | 1 % [ 평균 ] | 삼% | ||||
시민 데이터 | 2020 년 10 월 17 ~ 20 일 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1 % | 45 % | 50 % | 1% | 0 % | 1% | 4 % |
Civiqs / Daily Kos | 2020 년 10 월 17 ~ 20 일 | 863 (LV) | ± 3.5 % | 47 % | 51 % | - | - | 1 % [aw] | 1% |
CNN / SSRS | 2020 년 10 월 15 ~ 20 일 | 847 (LV) | ± 4 % | 46 % | 50 % | 1% | 1% | 0 % [ax] | 1% |
모닝 컨설 트 | 2020 년 10 월 11 ~ 20 일 | 4,685 (LV) | ± 1.4 % | 45 % | 52 % | - | - | – | – |
변화 연구 / CNBC | 2020 년 10 월 16 ~ 19 일 | 547 (LV) [c] | – | 45 % | 50 % | - | - | – | – |
노스 플로리다 대학교 | 2020 년 10 월 12 ~ 16 일 | 863 (LV) | ± 3.3 % | 47 % | 48 % | - | - | 1 % [일] | 삼% |
HarrisX / The Hill [1] | 2020 년 10 월 12 ~ 15 일 | 965 (LV) | – | 48 % | 48 % | - | - | – | 4 % |
Ipsos / Reuters | 2020 년 10 월 7 ~ 14 일 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.4 % | 47 % [i] | 50 % | 0 % | 0 % | 2 % [az] | – |
47 % [ba] | 49 % | - | - | 1 % [bb] | 삼% | ||||
트라팔가 그룹 | 2020 년 10 월 11 ~ 13 일 | 1,051 (LV) | ± 2.94 % | 48 % | 46 % | 2 % | 1% | 1 % [BC] | 2 % |
Redfield & Wilton 전략 | 2020 년 10 월 10 ~ 13 일 | 1,519 (LV) | – | 44 % [c] | 50 % | 1% | 0 % | – | – |
St. Pete Polls / Florida Politics | 2020 년 10 월 11 ~ 12 일 | 2,215 (LV) | ± 2.1 % | 47 % | 49 % | - | - | 1 % [bd] | 2 % |
에머슨 칼리지 | 2020 년 10 월 10 ~ 12 일 | 690 (LV) | ± 3.7 % | 48 % [be] | 51 % | - | - | 1 % [bf] | – |
메이슨-딕슨 | 2020 년 10 월 8 ~ 12 일 | 625 (LV) | ± 4 % | 45 % | 48 % | - | - | 1 % [bg] | 6 % |
Clearview 연구 | 2020 년 10 월 7 ~ 12 일 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.18 % | 40 % [i] | 47 % | - | - | 4%[bh] | 9% |
39%[bi] | 48% | - | - | 4%[bj] | 9% | ||||
41%[bk] | 46% | - | - | 4%[bl] | 9% | ||||
Morning Consult | Oct 2–11, 2020 | 4,785 (LV) | ± 1.4% | 46% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Oct 9–10, 2020 | 750 (LV) | – | 42%[c] | 53% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
Florida Atlantic University | Oct 9–10, 2020 | 644 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 51% | - | - | 2%[bm] | – |
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ | Oct 4–8, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 46%[i] | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
44%[bn] | 50% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | ||||
47%[bo] | 46% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | ||||
Insider Advantage/Hannity Exclusive (R) | Oct 6–7, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 46% | 1% | - | – | 10% |
YouGov/CCES | Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 | 3,755 (LV) | – | 47% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Ipsos/Reuters | Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 | 678 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 49% | - | - | 1%[bp] | 5% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Oct 4–6, 2020 | 998 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 49% | 1% | 0% | 1%[bq] | 6% |
Quinnipiac University | Oct 1–5, 2020 | 1,256 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 40% | 51% | - | - | 1%[br] | 7% |
Change Research/CNBC | Oct 2–4, 2020 | 560 (LV) | – | 46% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Suffolk University/USA Today[2] | Oct 1–4, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45%[i] | 45% | 2% | 0%[bs] | 2%[bt] | 6% |
46%[bu] | 45% | - | - | 2%[bv] | 7% | ||||
University of North Florida | Oct 1–4, 2020 | 3,134 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 45% | 51% | - | - | 1%[bw] | 3%[bx] |
St. Leo University | Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 | 489 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | 5% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 | 710 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 0%[by] | 8%[bz] |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 12,962 (LV) | – | 47% | 51% | - | - | – | 2% |
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce | Sep 23–29, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 44%[c] | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] | Sep 23–26, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 46% | 3% | - | – | 8%[ca] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Sep 23–25, 2020 | 1,073 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 43% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1%[cb] | 7% |
St. Pete Polls | Sep 21–22, 2020 | 2,906 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 47% | 50% | - | - | 2%[cc] | 2% |
Data For Progress[D] | Sep 15–22, 2020 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 46% | - | - | – | 11% |
Change Research/CNBC | Sep 18–20, 2020 | 702 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
ABC/Washington Post | Sep 15–20, 2020 | 613 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 47% | - | - | 1%[cd] | 1% |
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[E] | Sep 17–19, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
YouGov/CBS | Sep 15–18, 2020 | 1,205 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 48% | - | - | 1%[ce] | 5% |
Ipsos/Reuters | Sep 11–17, 2020 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 47% | - | - | 2%[cf] | 4% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Sep 12–14, 2020 | 1,158 (LV) | ± 2.88% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1%[cg] | 6% |
Monmouth University | Sep 10–13, 2020 | 428 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 45% | 50% | 2% | 0% | 1%[ch] | 3% |
428 (LV) | 45%[ci] | 50% | - | - | 1%[cj] | 3% | |||
46%[ck] | 49% | - | - | 1%[cl] | 3% | ||||
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report | Aug 29 – Sep 13, 2020 | 1,009 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | - | - | 4%[cm] | 11% |
Florida Atlantic University | Sep 11–12, 2020 | 631 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 50% | - | - | 0%[cn] | – |
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics/AARP | Sep 7–8, 2020 | 2,689 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 47% | 50% | - | - | 2%[co] | 2% |
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP | Aug 30 – Sep 8, 2020 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 48% | - | - | 2%[cp] | 4% |
Morning Consult | Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 | 3,914 (LV) | ± (2%-4%) | 43%[cq] | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC | Sep 4–6, 2020 | 1,144 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | 4%[cr] | – |
Marist College/NBC | Aug 31 – Sep 5, 2020 | 760 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 48% | - | - | 1% | 2% |
Trafalgar Group | Sep 1–3, 2020 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 2% | - | 1%[cs] | 2% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2020 | 1,093 (LV) | ± 2.96% | 43% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1%[ct] | 6% |
GQR Research (D) | Aug 26 – Sep 3, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
Quinnipiac | Aug 28 – Sep 1, 2020 | 1,235 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 48% | - | - | 1%[cu] | 5% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 12,286 (LV) | – | 50% | 48% | - | - | – | 2% |
Morning Consult | Aug 21–30, 2020 | 3,790 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 47% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Opinium/The Guardian[3] | Aug 21–26, 2020 | 684 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | - | - | 1% | 6% |
Change Research/CNBC | Aug 21–23, 2020 | 1,262 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
PPP | Aug 21–22, 2020 | 671 (V) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 48% | - | - | – | 7% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | Aug 16, 2020 | 1,280 (LV) | – | 41% | 49% | 1% | - | 1%[cv] | 7% |
Morning Consult | Aug 7–16, 2020 | 3,484 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 45% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[F] | Aug 11–15, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 46% | 2% | - | 1%[cw] | 6% |
Change Research/CNBC | Aug 7–9, 2020 | 469 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[G] | Aug 2–4, 2020 | 400 (LV) | – | 49% | 49% | - | - | – | 2% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 13,945 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | - | - | – | 2% |
Change Research/CNBC[4] | Jul 24–26, 2020 | 685 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult | Jul 17–26, 2020 | 3,760 (LV) | ± 1.6% | 46%[cx] | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult | Jul 16–25, 2020 | – (LV)[cy] | – | 45% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
CNN/SSRS | Jul 18–24, 2020 | 880 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 51% | - | - | 2%[cz] | 2% |
Zogby Analytics | Jul 21–23, 2020 | 811 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 43% | 3% | 2% | – | 9% |
Mason-Dixon | Jul 20–23, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 50% | - | - | – | 4% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Jul 19–21, 2020 | 1,121 (LV) | – | 41% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1%[da] | 8% |
Quinnipiac University | Jul 16–20, 2020 | 924 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 38% | 51% | - | - | 6%[db] | 5% |
Morning Consult | Jul 6–15, 2020 | – (LV)[dc] | – | 45% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete Polls | Jul 13–14, 2020 | 3,018 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 44% | 50% | - | - | 2%[dd] | 3% |
Gravis Marketing | Jul 13, 2020 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 53% | - | - | – | 4% |
Change Research/CNBC | Jul 10–12, 2020 | 1,128 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
YouGov/CBS | Jul 7–10, 2020 | 1,206 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 48% | - | - | 2%[de] | 8% |
Morning Consult | Jun 26 – Jul 5, 2020 | – (LV)[df] | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Trafalgar Group | Jun 29 – Jul 2, 2020 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 2.91% | 46% | 46% | - | - | 5%[dg] | 3% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 5,663 (LV) | – | 51% | 47% | - | - | – | 2% |
Change Research/CNBC | Jun 26–28, 2020 | 951 (LV)[c] | – | 45% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult | Jun 16–25, 2020 | – (LV)[dh] | – | 45% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Fox News | Jun 20–23, 2020 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3% | 40% | 49% | - | - | 6%[di] | 6% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | Jun 8–18, 2020 | 651 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 41% | 47% | - | - | 4%[dj] | 7% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Jun 14–15, 2020 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.98% | 41% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 1%[dk] | 11% |
Morning Consult | Jun 6–15, 2020 | – (LV)[dl] | – | 45% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC | Jun 12–14, 2020 | 713 (LV)[c] | – | 43% | 50% | - | - | 3%[dm] | – |
Gravis Marketing/OANN | Released Jun 11, 2020 | – (V)[dn] | – | 50% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
TIPP/American Greatness PAC[A] | Jun 9–11, 2020 | 875 (LV) | – | 40% | 51% | - | - | 4%[do] | 5% |
Morning Consult | May 27 – Jun 5, 2020 | – (LV)[dp] | – | 48% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC | May 29–31, 2020 | 1,186 (LV)[c] | – | 45% | 48% | - | - | 2% | 4% |
Cygnal (R) | May 18–30, 2020 | 881 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43.8% | 47% | - | - | 3.3%[dq] | 5.9% |
St. Pete Polls | May 26–27, 2020 | 4,763 (RV) | ± 1.4% | 46.7% | 47.5% | - | - | 2.7%[dr] | 3.1% |
Morning Consult | May 17–26, 2020 | 3,593 (LV) | – | 48%[ds] | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult | May 16–25, 2020 | – (LV)[dt] | – | 48% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Point Blank Political | May 14–17, 2020 | 2,149 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 45% | 1%[du] | <1%[dv] | 2% | 8% |
Point Blank Political | May 14–17, 2020 | 2,149 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult | May 6–15, 2020 | – (LV)[dw] | – | 50% | 45% | - | - | – | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 10–14, 2020 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 45% | - | - | 3%[dx] | 10% |
Florida Atlantic University | May 8–12, 2020 | 928 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 53% | - | - | – | – |
Fox News | Apr 18–21, 2020 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | - | - | 3% | 7% |
Quinnipiac University | Apr 16–20, 2020 | 1,385 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 46% | - | - | 3% | 7% |
St. Pete Polls | Apr 16–17, 2020 | 5,659 (RV) | ± 1.3% | 48% | 48% | - | - | – | 4% |
University of North Florida | Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2020 | 3,244 (RV) | ± 1.7% | 40% | 46% | - | - | – | 8% |
AtlasIntel | Mar 14–16, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | - | - | 10% | – |
Univision | Mar 6–12, 2020 | 1,071 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 45% | - | - | – | 7% |
Florida Atlantic University | Mar 5–7, 2020 | 1,216 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
University of North Florida | Feb, 2020 | 696 (LV) | – | 45% | 45% | - | - | – | 10%[dy] |
Saint Leo University | Feb 17–22, 2020 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 51% | - | - | – | 8% |
University of North Florida | Feb 10–18, 2020 | 668 (RV) | – | 48% | 49% | - | - | – | 3% |
Florida Atlantic University | Jan 9–12, 2020 | 1,285 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] | Jan 3–12, 2020 | 608 (LV) | ± 4% | 49% | 45% | - | - | – | – |
Mason-Dixon | Dec 11–16, 2019 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | - | - | – | 8% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 46% | - | - | – | – |
University of North Florida | Oct 14–20, 2019 | 643 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 43% | 48% | - | - | 6%[dz] | 3% |
Florida Atlantic University | Sep 12–15, 2019 | 934 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | - | – | – |
Quinnipiac University | Jun 12–17, 2019 | 1,279 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 41% | 50% | - | - | 1% | 6% |
St. Pete Polls | Jun 15–16, 2019 | 3,095 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 47% | 47% | - | - | – | 6% |
Florida Atlantic University | May 16–19, 2019 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
WPA Intelligence | Apr 27–30, 2019 | 200 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 48% | 44% | - | - | – | 7% |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
|
Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey
with Donald Trump and generic Democrat
with Donald Trump and generic Opponent
with Mike Pence and Joe Biden
with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris
with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren
|
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence | 5,668,731 | 51.22% | +2.20% | |
Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris | 5,297,045 | 47.86% | +0.04% | |
Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen | 70,324 | 0.64% | -1.56% | |
Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker | 14,721 | 0.13% | -0.55% | |
Reform | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson | 5,966 | 0.05% | -0.05% | |
Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman | 5,712 | 0.05% | N/A | |
Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr | 3,902 | 0.04% | -0.13% | |
Write-in | 1,055 | 0.01% | -0.26% | ||
Total votes | 11,067,456 | 100.00% |
By county
County | Donald J. Trump | Joseph R. Biden | Jo Jorgensen | Howie Hawkins | Rocky De La Fuente | Gloria La Riva | Don Blankenship | Other | Margin | Total votes cast | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||||
Alachua | 50,972 | 35.74% | 89,704 | 62.90% | 1,390 | 0.97% | 302 | 0.21% | 70 | 0.05% | 94 | 0.07% | 52 | 0.04% | 20 | 0.01% | -38,732 | -27.16% | 142,604 |
Baker | 11,911 | 84.72% | 2,037 | 14.49% | 93 | 0.66% | 10 | 0.07% | 4 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.02% | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% | 9,874 | 70.23% | 14,059 |
Bay | 66,097 | 71.05% | 25,614 | 27.53% | 1,004 | 1.08% | 142 | 0.15% | 54 | 0.06% | 45 | 0.05% | 52 | 0.06% | 16 | 0.02% | 40,483 | 43.52% | 93,024 |
Bradford | 10,334 | 75.81% | 3,160 | 23.18% | 110 | 0.81% | 11 | 0.08% | 7 | 0.05% | 3 | 0.02% | 6 | 0.04% | 1 | 0.01% | 7,174 | 52.63% | 13,632 |
Brevard | 207,883 | 57.62% | 148,549 | 41.18% | 3,178 | 0.88% | 553 | 0.15% | 222 | 0.06% | 164 | 0.05% | 171 | 0.05% | 44 | 0.01% | 59,334 | 16.45% | 360,764 |
Broward | 333,409 | 34.81% | 618,752 | 64.61% | 3,114 | 0.33% | 1,253 | 0.13% | 426 | 0.04% | 417 | 0.04% | 238 | 0.02% | 63 | 0.01% | -285,343 | -29.80% | 957,672 |
Calhoun | 5,274 | 80.82% | 1,209 | 18.53% | 29 | 0.44% | 4 | 0.06% | 4 | 0.06% | 4 | 0.06% | 2 | 0.03% | 0 | 0.00% | 4,065 | 62.29% | 6,526 |
Charlotte | 73,243 | 62.96% | 42,273 | 36.34% | 565 | 0.49% | 129 | 0.11% | 49 | 0.04% | 32 | 0.03% | 45 | 0.04% | 4 | 0.00% | 30,970 | 26.62% | 116,340 |
Citrus | 65,352 | 70.11% | 27,092 | 29.07% | 548 | 0.59% | 86 | 0.09% | 42 | 0.05% | 30 | 0.03% | 49 | 0.05% | 9 | 0.01% | 38,260 | 41.05% | 93,208 |
Clay | 84,480 | 67.91% | 38,317 | 30.80% | 1,286 | 1.03% | 153 | 0.12% | 45 | 0.04% | 55 | 0.04% | 57 | 0.05% | 12 | 0.01% | 46,163 | 37.11% | 124,405 |
Collier | 128,950 | 62.05% | 77,621 | 37.35% | 889 | 0.43% | 186 | 0.09% | 64 | 0.03% | 50 | 0.02% | 39 | 0.02% | 19 | 0.01% | 51,329 | 24.70% | 207,818 |
Columbia | 23,836 | 72.14% | 8,914 | 26.98% | 224 | 0.68% | 28 | 0.08% | 12 | 0.04% | 20 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.02% | 0 | 0.00% | 14,922 | 45.16% | 33,042 |
Desoto | 8,313 | 65.67% | 4,259 | 33.64% | 52 | 0.41% | 8 | 0.06% | 12 | 0.09% | 11 | 0.09% | 4 | 0.03% | 0 | 0.00% | 4,054 | 32.02% | 12,659 |
Dixie | 6,759 | 82.76% | 1,365 | 16.71% | 27 | 0.33% | 5 | 0.06% | 5 | 0.06% | 2 | 0.02% | 4 | 0.05% | 0 | 0.00% | 5,394 | 66.05% | 8,167 |
Duval | 233,762 | 47.43% | 252,556 | 51.25% | 4,788 | 0.97% | 772 | 0.16% | 319 | 0.06% | 328 | 0.07% | 218 | 0.04% | 77 | 0.02% | -18,794 | -3.81% | 492,820 |
Escambia | 96,674 | 56.74% | 70,929 | 41.63% | 2,146 | 1.26% | 256 | 0.15% | 105 | 0.06% | 137 | 0.08% | 92 | 0.05% | 33 | 0.02% | 25,745 | 15.11% | 170,372 |
Flagler | 43,043 | 60.02% | 28,161 | 39.27% | 359 | 0.50% | 69 | 0.10% | 30 | 0.04% | 29 | 0.04% | 20 | 0.03% | 5 | 0.01% | 14,882 | 20.75% | 71,716 |
Franklin | 4,675 | 68.26% | 2,120 | 30.95% | 27 | 0.39% | 12 | 0.18% | 4 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.12% | 3 | 0.04% | 0 | 0.00% | 2,555 | 37.30% | 6,849 |
Gadsden | 7,465 | 31.42% | 16,153 | 67.98% | 96 | 0.40% | 21 | 0.09% | 8 | 0.03% | 10 | 0.04% | 9 | 0.04% | 0 | 0.00% | -8,688 | -36.56% | 23,762 |
Gilchrist | 7,895 | 81.52% | 1,700 | 17.55% | 61 | 0.63% | 13 | 0.13% | 6 | 0.06% | 2 | 0.02% | 5 | 0.05% | 3 | 0.03% | 6,195 | 63.96% | 9,685 |
Glades | 3,782 | 72.83% | 1,385 | 26.67% | 21 | 0.40% | 4 | 0.08% | 0 | 0.00% | 1 | 0.02% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 2,397 | 46.16% | 5,193 |
Gulf | 6,113 | 74.89% | 1,985 | 24.32% | 48 | 0.59% | 5 | 0.06% | 6 | 0.07% | 0 | 0.00% | 6 | 0.07% | 0 | 0.00% | 4,128 | 50.57% | 8,163 |
Hamilton | 3,815 | 65.44% | 1,963 | 33.67% | 33 | 0.57% | 8 | 0.14% | 6 | 0.10% | 2 | 0.03% | 2 | 0.03% | 1 | 0.02% | 1,852 | 31.77% | 5,830 |
Hardee | 6,122 | 72.15% | 2,298 | 27.08% | 40 | 0.47% | 8 | 0.09% | 10 | 0.12% | 6 | 0.07% | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% | 3,824 | 45.07% | 8,485 |
Hendry | 7,906 | 61.10% | 4,929 | 38.09% | 65 | 0.50% | 13 | 0.10% | 11 | 0.09% | 8 | 0.06% | 7 | 0.05% | 1 | 0.01% | 2,977 | 23.01% | 12,940 |
Hernando | 70,412 | 64.64% | 37,519 | 34.45% | 686 | 0.63% | 151 | 0.14% | 62 | 0.06% | 44 | 0.04% | 40 | 0.04% | 8 | 0.01% | 32,893 | 30.20% | 108,922 |
Highlands | 34,873 | 66.84% | 16,938 | 32.47% | 223 | 0.43% | 53 | 0.10% | 28 | 0.05% | 24 | 0.05% | 28 | 0.05% | 3 | 0.01% | 17,935 | 34.38% | 52,170 |
Hillsborough | 327,398 | 45.98% | 376,367 | 52.86% | 5,665 | 0.80% | 1,187 | 0.17% | 574 | 0.08% | 529 | 0.07% | 270 | 0.04% | 73 | 0.01% | -48,969 | -6.88% | 712,063 |
Holmes | 8,080 | 89.10% | 924 | 10.19% | 48 | 0.53% | 9 | 0.10% | 2 | 0.02% | 1 | 0.01% | 4 | 0.04% | 0 | 0.00% | 7,156 | 78.91% | 9,068 |
Indian River | 58,872 | 60.39% | 37,844 | 38.82% | 534 | 0.55% | 117 | 0.12% | 43 | 0.04% | 33 | 0.03% | 38 | 0.04% | 3 | 0.00% | 21,028 | 21.57% | 97,484 |
Jackson | 15,488 | 69.08% | 6,766 | 30.18% | 116 | 0.52% | 13 | 0.06% | 13 | 0.06% | 13 | 0.06% | 5 | 0.02% | 5 | 0.02% | 8,722 | 38.90% | 22,419 |
Jefferson | 4,479 | 53.00% | 3,897 | 46.11% | 46 | 0.54% | 13 | 0.15% | 4 | 0.05% | 4 | 0.05% | 5 | 0.06% | 3 | 0.04% | 582 | 6.89% | 8,451 |
Lafayette | 3,128 | 85.51% | 510 | 13.94% | 14 | 0.38% | 2 | 0.05% | 1 | 0.03% | 1 | 0.03% | 2 | 0.05% | 0 | 0.00% | 2,618 | 71.57% | 3,658 |
Lake | 125,859 | 59.56% | 83,505 | 39.52% | 1,385 | 0.66% | 254 | 0.12% | 120 | 0.06% | 96 | 0.05% | 79 | 0.04% | 16 | 0.01% | 42,354 | 20.04% | 211,314 |
Lee | 233,247 | 59.21% | 157,695 | 40.03% | 2,016 | 0.51% | 440 | 0.11% | 187 | 0.05% | 176 | 0.04% | 121 | 0.03% | 17 | 0.00% | 75,552 | 19.18% | 393,899 |
Leon | 57,453 | 35.26% | 103,517 | 63.54% | 1,344 | 0.82% | 271 | 0.17% | 98 | 0.06% | 122 | 0.07% | 71 | 0.04% | 53 | 0.03% | -46,064 | -28.27% | 162,929 |
Levy | 16,749 | 72.37% | 6,205 | 26.81% | 131 | 0.57% | 25 | 0.11% | 14 | 0.06% | 7 | 0.03% | 13 | 0.06% | 1 | 0.00% | 10,544 | 45.56% | 23,145 |
Liberty | 2,846 | 79.92% | 694 | 19.49% | 14 | 0.39% | 2 | 0.06% | 2 | 0.06% | 2 | 0.06% | 1 | 0.03% | 0 | 0.00% | 2,152 | 60.43% | 3,561 |
Madison | 5,576 | 59.45% | 3,747 | 39.95% | 32 | 0.34% | 13 | 0.14% | 3 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.05% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,829 | 19.50% | 9,380 |
Manatee | 124,987 | 57.61% | 90,166 | 41.56% | 1,287 | 0.59% | 258 | 0.12% | 96 | 0.04% | 78 | 0.04% | 69 | 0.03% | 17 | 0.01% | 34,821 | 16.05% | 216,958 |
Marion | 127,826 | 62.54% | 74,858 | 36.63% | 1,180 | 0.58% | 228 | 0.11% | 91 | 0.04% | 98 | 0.05% | 80 | 0.04% | 15 | 0.01% | 52,968 | 25.92% | 204,376 |
Martin | 61,168 | 61.96% | 36,893 | 37.37% | 448 | 0.45% | 105 | 0.11% | 38 | 0.04% | 35 | 0.04% | 37 | 0.04% | 2 | 0.00% | 24,275 | 24.59% | 98,726 |
Miami-Dade | 532,833 | 46.06% | 617,864 | 53.41% | 3,329 | 0.29% | 1,289 | 0.11% | 602 | 0.05% | 579 | 0.05% | 293 | 0.03% | 27 | 0.00% | -85,031 | -7.35% | 1,156,816 |
Monroe | 25,693 | 53.49% | 21,881 | 45.56% | 348 | 0.72% | 51 | 0.11% | 26 | 0.05% | 14 | 0.03% | 12 | 0.02% | 4 | 0.01% | 3,812 | 7.94% | 48,029 |
Nassau | 42,566 | 72.38% | 15,564 | 26.46% | 569 | 0.97% | 43 | 0.07% | 28 | 0.05% | 12 | 0.02% | 24 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.01% | 27,002 | 45.91% | 58,811 |
Okaloosa | 79,798 | 68.57% | 34,248 | 29.43% | 1,881 | 1.62% | 183 | 0.16% | 76 | 0.07% | 73 | 0.06% | 79 | 0.07% | 35 | 0.03% | 45,550 | 39.14% | 116,373 |
Okeechobee | 11,470 | 71.89% | 4,390 | 27.52% | 66 | 0.41% | 7 | 0.04% | 8 | 0.05% | 4 | 0.03% | 8 | 0.05% | 1 | 0.01% | 7,080 | 44.38% | 15,954 |
Orange | 245,398 | 37.90% | 395,014 | 61.02% | 4,685 | 0.72% | 1,146 | 0.18% | 386 | 0.06% | 444 | 0.07% | 223 | 0.03% | 107 | 0.02% | -149,616 | -23.11% | 647,403 |
Osceola | 73,480 | 42.61% | 97,297 | 56.42% | 964 | 0.56% | 290 | 0.17% | 166 | 0.10% | 140 | 0.08% | 70 | 0.04% | 29 | 0.02% | -23,817 | -13.81% | 172,436 |
Palm Beach | 334,711 | 43.29% | 433,572 | 56.08% | 3,040 | 0.39% | 891 | 0.12% | 356 | 0.05% | 335 | 0.04% | 188 | 0.02% | 65 | 0.01% | -98,861 | -12.79% | 773,158 |
Pasco | 179,621 | 59.48% | 119,073 | 39.43% | 2,265 | 0.75% | 467 | 0.15% | 200 | 0.07% | 169 | 0.06% | 142 | 0.05% | 33 | 0.01% | 60,548 | 20.05% | 301,970 |
Pinellas | 276,209 | 49.35% | 277,450 | 49.57% | 4,268 | 0.76% | 912 | 0.16% | 305 | 0.05% | 311 | 0.06% | 199 | 0.04% | 61 | 0.01% | -1,241 | -0.22% | 559,715 |
Polk | 194,586 | 56.69% | 145,049 | 42.26% | 2,595 | 0.76% | 425 | 0.12% | 204 | 0.06% | 217 | 0.06% | 140 | 0.04% | 40 | 0.01% | 49,537 | 14.43% | 343,256 |
Putnam | 25,514 | 70.15% | 10,527 | 28.94% | 226 | 0.62% | 50 | 0.14% | 14 | 0.04% | 21 | 0.06% | 20 | 0.05% | 1 | 0.00% | 14,987 | 41.20% | 36,373 |
Santa Rosa | 77,385 | 72.37% | 27,612 | 25.82% | 1,645 | 1.54% | 122 | 0.11% | 60 | 0.06% | 46 | 0.04% | 55 | 0.05% | 3 | 0.00% | 49,773 | 46.55% | 106,928 |
Sarasota | 148,370 | 54.84% | 120,110 | 44.39% | 1,507 | 0.56% | 284 | 0.10% | 102 | 0.04% | 105 | 0.04% | 70 | 0.03% | 27 | 0.01% | 28,260 | 10.44% | 270,575 |
Seminole | 125,241 | 48.02% | 132,528 | 50.81% | 2,215 | 0.85% | 406 | 0.16% | 135 | 0.05% | 137 | 0.05% | 103 | 0.04% | 50 | 0.02% | -7,287 | -2.79% | 260,815 |
St. Johns | 110,946 | 62.82% | 63,850 | 36.15% | 1,413 | 0.80% | 210 | 0.12% | 101 | 0.06% | 54 | 0.03% | 44 | 0.02% | 4 | 0.00% | 47,096 | 26.66% | 176,622 |
St. Lucie | 86,831 | 50.43% | 84,137 | 48.87% | 768 | 0.45% | 209 | 0.12% | 71 | 0.04% | 82 | 0.05% | 61 | 0.04% | 10 | 0.01% | 2,694 | 1.56% | 172,169 |
Sumter | 62,761 | 67.86% | 29,341 | 31.73% | 269 | 0.29% | 39 | 0.04% | 25 | 0.03% | 20 | 0.02% | 29 | 0.03% | 1 | 0.00% | 33,420 | 36.14% | 92,485 |
Suwannee | 16,410 | 77.93% | 4,485 | 21.30% | 119 | 0.57% | 23 | 0.11% | 6 | 0.03% | 8 | 0.04% | 6 | 0.03% | 0 | 0.00% | 11,925 | 56.63% | 21,057 |
Taylor | 7,751 | 76.54% | 2,299 | 22.70% | 52 | 0.51% | 11 | 0.11% | 3 | 0.03% | 6 | 0.06% | 3 | 0.03% | 2 | 0.02% | 5,452 | 53.84% | 10,127 |
Union | 5,133 | 82.19% | 1,053 | 16.86% | 42 | 0.67% | 5 | 0.08% | 4 | 0.06% | 3 | 0.05% | 5 | 0.08% | 0 | 0.00% | 4,080 | 65.33% | 6,245 |
Volusia | 173,821 | 56.54% | 130,575 | 42.47% | 2,156 | 0.70% | 390 | 0.13% | 160 | 0.05% | 173 | 0.06% | 141 | 0.05% | 23 | 0.01% | 43,246 | 14.07% | 307,439 |
Wakulla | 12,874 | 69.95% | 5,351 | 29.08% | 135 | 0.73% | 18 | 0.10% | 10 | 0.05% | 6 | 0.03% | 10 | 0.05% | 0 | 0.00% | 7,523 | 40.88% | 18,404 |
Walton | 32,947 | 75.37% | 10,338 | 23.65% | 336 | 0.77% | 43 | 0.10% | 16 | 0.04% | 15 | 0.03% | 13 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.01% | 22,609 | 51.72% | 43,711 |
Washington | 9,876 | 80.12% | 2,347 | 19.04% | 69 | 0.56% | 15 | 0.12% | 5 | 0.04% | 10 | 0.08% | 5 | 0.04% | 0 | 0.00% | 7,529 | 61.08% | 12,327 |
Totals | 5,668,731 | 51.22% | 5,297,045 | 47.86% | 70,324 | 0.64% | 14,721 | 0.13% | 5,966 | 0.05% | 5,712 | 0.05% | 3,902 | 0.04% | 1,055 | 0.05% | 371,686 | 3.36% | 11,067,456 |
By congressional district
District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
---|
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Duval (largest city: Jacksonville)
- Pinellas (largest city: St. Petersburg)
- Seminole (largest city: Sanford)
Ex-felons
United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex-crimes.[36] The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which was speculated to have created further problems for ex-felons when they voted in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.[37]
Miami-Dade County
In Miami-Dade County, the majority of Trump support came from the west and the majority of Biden support came from the east. People of Mexican, Haitian, and African descent tended to vote for Biden, while people of Cuban and Colombian descent did so for Trump.[38] About two thirds of residents of Hialeah voted for Trump, whereas Trump and Clinton split the vote four years prior.[39] Sabrina Rodriguez of Politico wrote "a vote for Trump has become about more than just him, or even the Republican Party. It’s about patriotism."[40] Due to the heavy presence of the Cuban-American community, Hialeah traditionally, as of 2020, leaned towards Republican politics.[41]
Residents of Cuban descent often had an antagonism against leftist movements due to associations with Fidel Castro.[42] Trump sought to attract these voters by implementing anti-Cuba policies.[43] The courting of Miami Cubans, including those who had recently arrived in the U.S. and those who are of younger demographics, contributed to Trump taking Florida's electoral votes.[44]
Additionally Trump made efforts to target other Hispanic demographics.[39]
See also
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b c d e f g h Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Standard VI response
- ^ West (B) with 1%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
- ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
- ^ Includes "Refused"
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
- ^ "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with 0%
- ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
- ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ "Refused" with 3%
- ^ "Other third party" with 2%
- ^ "Third Party" with 2%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Other" and "None of these" with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
- ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Third party" with 1%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "One of the other party or independent tickets" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ Under a +2 Democratic turnout model
- ^ "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ Under a conservative +2 Republican turnout model
- ^ "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ No voters
- ^ "Refused" with 2%; La Riva (PSOL) with 1%; Blankenship (C), Fuente (A) and "other" with no voters
- ^ With the preferences of La Riva and Jorgensen voters in an election featuring only Biden and Trump
- ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ Includes "Refused"
- ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
- ^ Includes "Refused"
- ^ Includes "Refused"
- ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
- ^ "Third party" with 2%
- ^ "Neither" with 1%; "other" and would not vote with no voters
- ^ "Someone else/third party" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
- ^ "No one" with 1%
- ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- ^ "Other" with 1%
- ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- ^ "Other" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 0%
- ^ "Third party" with 2%
- ^ Would not vote with 2%
- ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Other/not sure" with 4%
- ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
- ^ "Refused" with 1%
- ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ "Other" with 1%; "Neither" 1%
- ^ "Another third party/write-in" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ "Third-party candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ "Other party candidate" with 5%
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
- ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
- ^ "Third party" with 2.7%
- ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
- ^ "Green nominee" with 0.4%
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- ^ Includes "Refused"
- ^ Wouldn't vote with 6%
- ^ Wouldn't vote with 7%
- ^ Wouldn't vote with 8%
- ^ Wouldn't vote with 6%
- ^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
- ^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
- ^ Wouldn't vote with 8%
- ^ Wouldn't vote with 8%
- Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
- ^ Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
- ^ Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
- ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
- ^ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
- ^ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters
References
- ^ November 3, 2020 General Election, Florida Department of State, Division of Elections.
- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Cruise ship hotels, zoo parties and an NBA arena: Miami's Democratic convention pitch". miamiherald. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
- ^ "City of Milwaukee 1 of 3 finalists to host 2020 Democratic National Convention". FOX6Now.com. June 20, 2018. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
- ^ Glauber, Bill (August 22, 2018). "Selection committee for 2020 Democratic Convention will visit Milwaukee next week". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
- ^ Haberman, Maggie (November 4, 2019). "Trump, Lifelong New Yorker, Declares Himself a Resident of Florida". The New York Times.
- ^ Nagourney, Adam; Goldmacher, Shane; Thrush, Glenn (November 4, 2020). "Big gains among Latinos in the Miami area power Trump to victory in Florida". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- ^ "Florida Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- ^ "Florida 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
- ^ "The Political Graveyard: Duval County, Fla". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
- ^ "The Political Graveyard: Seminole County, Fla". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
- ^ "March 17, 2020 Primary Election". Florida Department of State. Florida Division of Elections. March 31, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
- ^ "Florida Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
- ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ Zhou, Li (January 21, 2019). "Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign". Vox. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ Detrow, Scott (February 1, 2019). "Cory Booker Makes It Official: He's Running For President In 2020". NPR. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ "First Democratic Debate 2019: Highlights, candidates and more". NBC News.
- ^ "March 17, 2020 Primary Election: Democratic Primary". Florida Department of State Division of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ "November 3, 2020 General Election Official Results". Florida Department of State. November 17, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
- ^ "Initiative Information". Florida Division of Elections. Retrieved September 26, 2018.
- ^ https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/09/11/us/trump-vs-biden
- ^ Viteri, Amy; Torres, Andrea (November 6, 2020). "Presidential election: Here is why eastern Miami-Dade is celebrating and western Miami-Dade is not". Local 10 Miami. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
- ^ a b Daugherty, Alex; Smiley, David; Padró Ocasio, Bianca; Wieder, Ben (November 6, 2020). "How non-Cuban Hispanics in Miami helped deliver Florida for Donald Trump". Miami Herald. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
- ^ "Will flag-waving Latinos win Florida for Trump?". Politico. October 16, 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
- ^ Smiley, David (September 21, 2020). "Why some Cuban-Americans in Florida are supporting Biden over Trump". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved October 20, 2020.
- ^ "Cuban Americans show strong support for Trump". University of Miami. October 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
- ^ Gomez Licon, Adriana (October 30, 2020). "With salsa, caravans, Cubans make last push to reelect Trump". Associated Press. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
- ^ "How Miami Cubans disrupted Biden's path to a Florida win". Politico. November 4, 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
Further reading
- David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (August 30, 2020), "The six political states of Florida", Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on September 7, 2020
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Florida
- Nick Corasaniti; Stephanie Saul; Patricia Mazzei (September 13, 2020), "Big Voting Decisions in Florida, Wisconsin, Texas: What They Mean for November", New York Times, archived from the original on September 13, 2020,
Both parties are waging legal battles around the country over who gets to vote and how
- Jonathan Martin; Patricia Mazzei (September 14, 2020), "A Tight Trump-Biden Race in Florida: Here's the State of Play", New York Times, archived from the original on September 14, 2020
- David Wasserman (October 6, 2020), "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble", Nytimes.com. (Describes bellwether Pinellas County, Florida)
- Videos
- "Conservative Cubans, Venezuelans in Miami on why they voted for Trump". Washington Post. November 4, 2020.
External links
- Florida Elections Commission government website
- "League of Women Voters of Florida". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Florida at Ballotpedia
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Florida", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Florida: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA